FX regimes, inflation, minerals, and informal sector dynamics.
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe targets a 1.8% FY26 deficit to anchor IMF reengagement; risk premia track EMB while gold prices (XAUUSD) support FX inflows. Zero net central-bank financing and ≥95% revenue outturns by mid-2026 would validate disinflation and currency stability.
Markets
Zimbabwe’s insurance fraud isn’t a headline—it’s a market risk. With ZWL 2.9trn GWP (~USD480m), IPEC pegs losses near 3% (~USD15m) yearly, pressuring premiums and a 1.5% penetration rate. Listed insurers—OMU, ZBFH, ZIM—lose investable cash; AI, shared fraud bureaus are urgent.
Markets
China’s banks deployed over US$3.2 trillion in tech loans by mid-2025, while Africa’s startups raised under US$3 billion in 2023. This vast credit gap shows one system risking misallocation through excess and another held back by scarcity, with major implications for global investors.