Gabon
Gabon Bulk Buying Model Targets Inflation and Supply
GA:LOGFRT and GA:STORGH are set to benefit as CEAG mandates traceable imports; sovereign spread at +425 bps signals market focus on governance and fiscal discipline.
West Africa
West African economies, CFA franc, commodities, and reforms.
Côte d’Ivoire
IMF World Bank Bilaterals Support Ivorian Stability
Côte d’Ivoire secures concessional anchors to compress refinancing risk as EM credit tracks EMB while energy volatility via CL=F tests buffers; growth ~6% and debt mid-50s of GDP sustain WAEMU benchmark status if execution metrics hold.
Senegal
Dakar shifts funding mix toward local-currency markets
Senegal raises CFAF 450 billion under a new financing doctrine, shifting debt toward local markets and tighter audit rules. Watch BZ=F near USD 80 and EMB +15 bps YTD as WAEMU yields 6.3–6.5% test compression through mid-2026.
Ghana
AGOA lapse exposes Ghana’s competitive fragility
Ghana’s AGOA lapse imposes 10–15% MFN tariffs, squeezing margins and FX. Track USDGHS=X for currency pressure and CC=F, GC=F for commodity buffers, alongside 7–10y auction cut-offs for term-premium signals through 2026–2027.
Togo
Lomé forum converts ESG goals into investable assets
BlueInvest Africa links SMEs and capital as Lomé scales the blue economy; EMB and AFK track frontier appetite while CL=F shapes current-account risk; delivery on a €200m pipeline and TEU gains will determine durable spread compression.
Burkina Faso
Centralization of NGO deposits tests bank liquidity
Burkina mandates NGO accounts at the Treasury Deposits Bank, tightening fiscal control and nudging bank funding costs higher. Track XAUUSD and EMB alongside deposit trends, loan pricing, and settlement timeliness to gauge liquidity and execution risk.
Nigeria
Monetary Tightening Meets Fiscal Friction in Nigeria
Nigeria’s cost squeeze persists as USDNGN steadies near 1,465 and NGE tracks selective equity strength; one-year bills ~21% and 10-year yields ~15.6% flag elevated risk premia while bank fees and layered taxes compress real-sector margins.
Nigeria
Liquidity returns as naira regains trading discipline
Nigeria’s FX turnover jumped to USD 8.6 billion as reforms deepened; NGN=X held near ₦1,460 while BZ=F traded in the high USD 70s. NGSEINDX:IND climbed 42.8% YTD as reserves topped USD 42 billion and investor confidence strengthened.
Burkina Faso
Industrial Policy Aims To Rebuild Manufacturing Base?
Burkina Faso accelerates import substitution via TEXFORCES-BF recapitalization; watch capacity, margins, arrears, and debt stability as CT=F and XSFR.L reflect commodity and frontier risk signals for policy credibility.
Côte d’Ivoire
Green Investment Deepens Côte d’Ivoire Energy Market
AXIAN invests USD 58 million in Côte d’Ivoire’s solar grid expansion as CL=F volatility drives fuel-cost savings; Eurobond 2032 yields steady near 6.5% while EMB reflects tightening frontier spreads amid accelerating private renewable capital inflows.
Nigeria
Lagos Leads Sub-nationals As Fiscal Gaps Deepen
Lagos’s ₦874bn debt highlights Nigeria’s fiscal divide as ₦4.43trn FAAC flows sustain states, USDNGN=X steadies near ₦1,460 and NGGB10Y yields 17%, while EMB and AFK track frontier risk and CL=F, BZ=F shape oil-linked revenue exposure.
Togo
Togo’s Budget Reform Targets Credibility Gains
Togo’s programme budgeting tightens fiscal control as BCEAO holds easier settings; credible delivery could compress auction yields despite pressures from BZ=F and ^TNX while EM beta via EMB remains supportive for risk pricing.