Tunisia’s dinar, fiscal consolidation, IMF prospects, and growth.
Tunisia
Tunisia’s 2026 budget tightens the deficit near 3% of GDP and conditions SOE support on governance milestones; TND=X steadies as CL=F-linked liabilities shrink, with spreads seen narrowing 150–200 bps if reforms sustain into 2026.
Tunisia
BCT keeps rates at 7.5% as inflation cools to 5.0%; reserves cover 105 days. TUNINDEX stays near 12,327 while EMB and CL=F track risk appetite, reflecting Tunisia’s strategy to anchor credibility over stimulus in a tightening global cycle.
Tunisia
Tunisia’s energy-weighted trade gap widens as Brent (BZ=F) stays elevated and the dinar (TND=X) trades near 2.92 per USD; USD bond yields remain mid-teens versus ^TNX, while EMB stability highlights Tunisia’s idiosyncratic risk premium.
Tunisia
Tunisia manages a narrow stability path as USD/TND (TND=X) volatility stays muted and oil (CL=F) risk caps disinflation; IMF projects 2.5% growth in 2025 and a ~3% deficit, keeping spreads elevated while duration premia anchor the local curve amid high global rates.
Markets
Tunisia and Egypt tout a new “model partnership” in trade, but with volumes under $0.5B, real progress hinges on shipping, customs, and finance reforms to turn rhetoric into bankable deals.