Economic outlook, policy, and financial markets across Sub-Saharan Africa.
Africa
Africa’s bond markets are rallying as the dollar weakens, with Kenya’s 2032 yielding 9.3% and Egypt’s 9.8%. Global investors are returning to frontier debt, but credibility—not yield—will determine who secures capital in this short global liquidity window.
Sub-Saharan Africa
World Bank raises Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.8% as inflation eases near 5%. Bond yields remain elevated—Kenya 17%, Ghana 25%, South Africa 10-year 10.4%—signaling resilience but fragile confidence under tight global liquidity.
Emerging Markets
Japan’s new export curbs on Chinese tech firms may seem distant, but their impact could reach African factories, solar parks, and ports. As supply costs rise and inputs tighten, Africa’s manufacturing dreams face a global test of resilience, strategy, and independence.
Frontier Markets
Shri Krishana (NSE: SKOP) warns of >25% profit drop after H1 net fell 70% to KSh 2m. Borrowings hit KSh 150m, debt-to-equity 2.1×, interest cover just 1.16×. With Kenya’s 364-day T-bill at 17% and KES near 154/USD, survival hinges on Kisaju plant execution.
Markets
AfDB approves USD 22.8m for Mozambique to raise rice yields from 1t/ha to 4t/ha, lifting incomes to USD 1,000. A test for food security, ESG flows, and sovereign credibility, with investors watching agriculture as a macro risk factor.
Markets
AGOA expired Sept 30, 2025, leaving a policy vacuum. Trade fell from USD 44bn highs, apparel orders in Ghana/Lesotho canceled. Risks: KENINT 2032 +50–100bps, GHANA 2034 spreads, FX (KES, GHS, ZAR), equities (PVH, LEVI, NSE:BAT, JSE:ANG).
Markets
Alios Finance’s CFA 9 bn raise signals nonbank finance’s growing role in Cameroon. As sovereign yields top 10% and credit access lags at 19%, the firm’s bet on leasing and SME lending could redefine CEMAC’s financial future—or expose systemic fragility.
Policy & Economy
CAF’s $5B child pledge with UNICEF is more than a Latin story. For Africa—home to 40% of the world’s children—it signals that human capital is now investable infrastructure, with debt spreads, ESG flows, and sovereign risk on the line.
Policy & Economy
Russia’s record $712.6B reserves boost BRICS optics, but sanctions and liquidity traps reveal limits. Gold’s rally (XAUUSD $2,650) and yuan reliance (USDCNY 7.30) fuel talk of a BRICS currency—yet governance and credibility hurdles keep it a mirage.
Markets
Ignoring Africa’s $40B annual productivity loss from untreated mental illness is no longer viable. Investors tracking NPN, SBK, EQTY, and GTCO may find the next growth edge is cognitive resilience, not commodities.
Markets
Platinum’s 2025 surge is a repricing of scarcity: three straight deficits, cautious South African supply, and palladium-to-platinum substitution. The setup favors disciplined miners and metal ETFs as platinum narrows its historic discount to gold while early hydrogen demand gathers pace.
Markets
China’s banks deployed over US$3.2 trillion in tech loans by mid-2025, while Africa’s startups raised under US$3 billion in 2023. This vast credit gap shows one system risking misallocation through excess and another held back by scarcity, with major implications for global investors.