Zambia
Zambia’s pharma push targets import substitution as Brent (BZ=F) holds near USD 85 and EMB tightens; USD 80m annual FX savings, 7.5% inflation, and non-copper exports up 0.5–1.0% of GDP would confirm execution through 2026.
Mozambique
Mozambique’s confidence index drops to 89.8 as MZN=X steadies near 63.5 and CL=F holds low-80s; the 2031 eurobond near 11.1% signals stabilization, but high lending spreads and micro-frictions still suppress capex and credit formation.
South Africa
South Africa enforces revised equity law as USDZAR holds near 17.3 and EZA mirrors reform risk; fines from R1.5 million up to 10% of turnover test governance strength while the 10-year bond yield near 9% tracks investor confidence and regulatory credibility.
Mozambique
CTA’s plan could compress XS2051203862 yields while MZN=X stability and EMB risk appetite improve on credible transparency gains; track policy rate 9.75%, inflation near 5%, and reserves around $3.7B through 2026.
Zambia
Zambia’s presumptive approvals speed energy investment as Eurobond yields (ZAM10Y) hover near 9.8% and kwacha (ZMW=X) stabilizes at ₭26.5; commissioning 600 MW by 2027 could lift GDP by 1 ppt and compress spreads sustainably.
Botswana
Botswana’s 300 MW baseload move tightens macro resilience as reserves hover near $3.53bn and the policy rate stays at 1.90%; sponsor leverage extends via NSE:JINDALSTEL while regional FX risk tracks ZAR=X through SAPP-linked terms-of-trade shocks.
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe targets a 1.8% FY26 deficit to anchor IMF reengagement; risk premia track EMB while gold prices (XAUUSD) support FX inflows. Zero net central-bank financing and ≥95% revenue outturns by mid-2026 would validate disinflation and currency stability.
Mozambique
Mozambique’s $6bn Mphanda Nkuwa project (EDM.MZ, HCB.MZ) faces a 12.5% WACC, $510m FCF, and 7.5% IRR. With Eskom (ESKOM.ZA) arrears at $1.2bn and Eurobond (MOZ2028.GB) maturities near, the project will define if clean energy can outpace fiscal gravity.