South Africa’s markets, Rand, bonds, and policy shifts.
Markets
Eskom posts ZAR 16bn profit after 8 years, easing pressure on South Africa 2032 Eurobond (7.1%) and USD/ZAR near 18.30. Miners AAL, BHP, GLEN, SBSW gain stability, but CDS at 280 bps and arrears risk keep global investors cautious
Policy & Economy
Nelson Mandela Bay’s R1.58bn deficit signals more than local mismanagement: soaring water and power losses, unpaid bills, and weak collections highlight systemic municipal fragility that could spill into South Africa’s sovereign risk profile.
Policy & Economy
Global chips hit USD 697B in 2025, with Taiwan holding 64% foundry share and exports at USD 165B. Africa imports 95%+ of chips, making South Africa’s alignment pivotal as China eyes a USD 100B fab push into emerging markets.
Policy & Economy
South Africa’s CPI slowed to 3.3% y/y vs 3.6% forecast, core near 3.1% and headline −0.1% m/m. USDZAR firmed to 17.6, R2035 yields dipped to 9.1%, banks rallied—yet SARB faces a Thursday dilemma: hold credibility at 7.00% or cut 25bp to aid growth.
Exchanges & Indices
The JSE surged in Week 37, fueled by a +R44.4B net foreign inflow into bonds. The Resource 10 Index soared +82.32% YoY, while weekly equity turnover value hit R166.1B. Strong conviction defined a bullish week for investors in South African markets.
Policy & Economy
South Africa’s withdrawal of Credit Act amendments signals reform paralysis, not mere regulatory noise. With GDP growth near 1%, debt/GDP at 72%, and SAGBs yielding 11.5%, markets see a rentier equilibrium: bonds as carry trades, rand as volatility hedge, banks as stagnation proxies.
Markets
NTC Global Trade’s R484m collapse, shadowed by van Niekerk’s murder, sharpens South Africa’s risk premium. With R262m owed and FSCA under scrutiny, investors eye USD/ZAR=X swings, 2030 Eurobond yields at 8.4%, and widening CDS as trust erodes in the country’s crypto oversight and rule-of-law.
Markets
China’s banks deployed over US$3.2 trillion in tech loans by mid-2025, while Africa’s startups raised under US$3 billion in 2023. This vast credit gap shows one system risking misallocation through excess and another held back by scarcity, with major implications for global investors.