Policy & Economy
NEC’s website shutdown over unpaid fees exposes a procurement and continuity gap with real costs for transparency and stability. A fixable blueprint—SLA uptime, escrowed code, CDN mirror, SMS/radio syndication—can restore trust fast and keep USDLRD calm through election cycles. SLA dashboards track.
Policy & Economy
EU’s 19th Russia sanctions: full LNG ban from 1 Jan 2027; ~118 shadow-fleet ships targeted; stricter finance/crypto curbs. 2025 CPI impact minimal; 2026–27 gas tails up—TTF vols ↑; Brent flat unless barrels removed. Playbook: hedge TTF, tilt to compliant tankers & portfolio LNG majors.
Markets
Mainland Group’s US$100m Liberia agri deal—announced Aug 13, 2025—targets a 1,000-ha rice site by Q3–Q4 ’25 and cocoa processing by Q1 ’26. Markets should care if offtakes, guarantees, and LCY/hedges land—turning PR into cash flows, tighter spreads, and semi-processed export FX.
Policy & Economy
By Jun 13, 2025, 56k cars via Khorgos (+21.6% y/y). Suez revenue $10.25bn→$4.0bn (2023→2024). EU EV duties 17–35% squeeze margins. Middle Corridor cargo +63% (2024). Africa’s pivot: ROO + local assembly or remain import-only.
Markets
Zimbabwe’s insurance fraud isn’t a headline—it’s a market risk. With ZWL 2.9trn GWP (~USD480m), IPEC pegs losses near 3% (~USD15m) yearly, pressuring premiums and a 1.5% penetration rate. Listed insurers—OMU, ZBFH, ZIM—lose investable cash; AI, shared fraud bureaus are urgent.
Markets
CVC buys Namecheap at ~$1.5B EV (≈3.8× sales) for a storefront with 20M+ domains and $398M ’24 revenue (+18% y/y). Pairing WebPros (cPanel/Plesk/WHMCS) with retail tightens funnel, lifting ARPU via attach; watch GDDY’s $4.9B ’25 guide and churn/NRR as margins shift.
Markets
Ecobank’s Design & Build Expo matters only if ETI (NGX\:ETI) turns optics into credit: receivables to cut DSO >90 days, 5–10% SME leasing, and a \$50–100m green window. Publish guarantees, LCY lines, a 6–12-month pipeline, and KPIs—or it’s PR, not spread-tightening deal flow.
Policy & Economy
Liberia’s anti-corruption drive shows momentum—CPI 27/100, Afrobarometer approval 54%—but markets want follow-through. Track peer curves (GHANA 2032, NGERIA 2031, SENEGL 2033, IVYCST 2032) and sector catalysts (TotalEnergies LB-6/11/17/29). When cases mature, spreads compress—if institutions hold.
Institutions
UNGA is noisy; capital isn’t. UBA’s whitepaper matters only if it shows hard metrics: $3–5bn size, ≥4× mobilization, AA/AAA wraps cutting 150–250 bps, ≥30% LCY/hedged, and a 6–12-month pipeline. Then tickers from ASI:LAG to J203 react; otherwise, it’s just polite applause.
Exchanges & Indices
The JSE surged in Week 37, fueled by a +R44.4B net foreign inflow into bonds. The Resource 10 Index soared +82.32% YoY, while weekly equity turnover value hit R166.1B. Strong conviction defined a bullish week for investors in South African markets.
Markets
South Sudan’s charges against VP Riek Machar threaten its oil lifeline. A collapse of the peace deal could cut output from 150 to 115 kbpd (thousand barrels per day), erase up to $450m yearly, push inflation beyond 60 percent, lift Brent (ICE:LCOc1) by $2–5/bbl, and widen East African spreads.
Markets
California’s trucking collapse shows oversupply and retreat. India faces driver shortages, Latin America struggles with costly roads, and Africa—undersupplied but growing 6–7% annually toward USD 500B—emerges as the frontier, offering 8–12% IRRs where others strain.