Policy & Economy
Kenya unlocked KSh2.65bn for 600k–680k tea farmers by activating KDIC pass-through protection on trust accounts. The cash jolt lifts rural wallets and trims “resolution friction” in agri-finance—mildly bullish for payments and deposits while tightening risk pricing.
Policy & Economy
Kenya is reviving the Sh337–340bn High Grand Falls dam (500–700 MW) after July’s PPP collapse. If bankable, it could cut system costs and lift KEGN/KPLC, cement names and banks—once procurement, hydrology and financing clear. Until then, it’s an option, not FID.
Policy & Economy
NEC’s website shutdown over unpaid fees exposes a procurement and continuity gap with real costs for transparency and stability. A fixable blueprint—SLA uptime, escrowed code, CDN mirror, SMS/radio syndication—can restore trust fast and keep USDLRD calm through election cycles. SLA dashboards track.
Policy & Economy
BoG’s second jumbo cut—350 bps to 21.5%—signals a shift from crisis control to disciplined easing. With inflation at 11.5%, real rates stay tight, bills should rally, the cedi looks steadier on stronger reserves, and banks’ funding costs fall. Risks: tariffs, commodity swings, over-easing bets Ahead
Policy & Economy
EU’s 19th Russia sanctions: full LNG ban from 1 Jan 2027; ~118 shadow-fleet ships targeted; stricter finance/crypto curbs. 2025 CPI impact minimal; 2026–27 gas tails up—TTF vols ↑; Brent flat unless barrels removed. Playbook: hedge TTF, tilt to compliant tankers & portfolio LNG majors.
Policy & Economy
By Jun 13, 2025, 56k cars via Khorgos (+21.6% y/y). Suez revenue $10.25bn→$4.0bn (2023→2024). EU EV duties 17–35% squeeze margins. Middle Corridor cargo +63% (2024). Africa’s pivot: ROO + local assembly or remain import-only.
Policy & Economy
Liberia’s anti-corruption drive shows momentum—CPI 27/100, Afrobarometer approval 54%—but markets want follow-through. Track peer curves (GHANA 2032, NGERIA 2031, SENEGL 2033, IVYCST 2032) and sector catalysts (TotalEnergies LB-6/11/17/29). When cases mature, spreads compress—if institutions hold.
Policy & Economy
South Africa’s withdrawal of Credit Act amendments signals reform paralysis, not mere regulatory noise. With GDP growth near 1%, debt/GDP at 72%, and SAGBs yielding 11.5%, markets see a rentier equilibrium: bonds as carry trades, rand as volatility hedge, banks as stagnation proxies.
Policy & Economy
China’s August unemployment edged up to 5.3%, but investors read more than a decimal: weak labor absorption, graduate surpluses, and structural mismatches signal fragile demand, with ripples across U.S. tech earnings, European exports, African commodities, and global capital flows.
Policy & Economy
African leaders meet in New York on Sept 21–22 for the Unstoppable Africa Summit, but markets eye execution. Ghana 2032s (XS2507008940) yield >18%, Kenya 2027s (XS2013531433) 11%. Will pledges lift AFK, JMIA, EMB, or fade as rhetoric? FX from NGN=X to ZAR=X waits on real inflows.
Policy & Economy
Burkina Faso’s move to scrap visa fees for all African travelers is more than symbolism. It is a fiscal gamble that swaps steady fee income for the hope of higher tourism, trade and service revenues—one that investors will track for its ripple effects across airlines, hotels and sovereign bonds.
Markets
California’s trucking collapse shows oversupply and retreat. India faces driver shortages, Latin America struggles with costly roads, and Africa—undersupplied but growing 6–7% annually toward USD 500B—emerges as the frontier, offering 8–12% IRRs where others strain.