Policy & Economy
Ethiopia’s $10B airport, $2.5B fertilizer venture, nuclear plans, and 1.5M housing units dwarf its fiscal space. With debt at 39% of GDP, reserves covering just 2.5 months of imports, and a euro-bond default unresolved, investors question if Addis’s mega-project pipeline is fiscal overreach.
Policy & Economy
Madagascar’s violent protests over power and water exposes fragile fundamentals. With GDP growth slowing to 3.2%, inflation at 8.6%, debt at 45% of GDP, and FX reserves covering just 3.6 months, unrest may widen spreads across frontier debt ETFs (EMB, FRNT) and hit mining giants RIO and S.TO.
Policy & Economy
Ørsted (ORSTED.CO) shares jumped after a U.S. court revived its $5B Revolution Wind project, averting $1B+ in losses. The ruling eases near-term risk but political uncertainty, cost inflation, and sector-wide PPA strains mean the stock’s bounce looks more like relief than re-rating.
Policy & Economy
Global chips hit USD 697B in 2025, with Taiwan holding 64% foundry share and exports at USD 165B. Africa imports 95%+ of chips, making South Africa’s alignment pivotal as China eyes a USD 100B fab push into emerging markets.
Policy & Economy
U.S. GDP’s 3.8% surprise looks like strength, but much of it stems from collapsing imports and inventory quirks. Beneath the headline, rate paths, bond yields, and global capital flows are shifting—forcing markets to rethink resilience.
Policy & Economy
CAF’s $5B child pledge with UNICEF is more than a Latin story. For Africa—home to 40% of the world’s children—it signals that human capital is now investable infrastructure, with debt spreads, ESG flows, and sovereign risk on the line.
Policy & Economy
Russia’s record $712.6B reserves boost BRICS optics, but sanctions and liquidity traps reveal limits. Gold’s rally (XAUUSD $2,650) and yuan reliance (USDCNY 7.30) fuel talk of a BRICS currency—yet governance and credibility hurdles keep it a mirage.
Policy & Economy
Sarkozy’s guilty verdict is historic, but OATs remain stable. France accounts for 15% of euro area GDP, with €2.9T public debt and euro reserves near 20% globally—proof markets care more about fundamentals than old scandals.
Markets
Ethiopia’s $1B Eurobond trades near 92c, but Ghana’s yields once hit 30%+ and Zambia bonds linger at 50–60c. With $33B debt unsustainable, Addis now stands as a bellwether for Africa’s sovereign risk and frontier market contagion.
Policy & Economy
Zindi’s new report on 8,000 Kenyan users shows 1 in 5 secured career shifts, 80% progressed with full profiles, and 4+ challenges made youth 4× likelier to find jobs. For markets, this signals a scalable AI labor pool reshaping outsourcing and credit risk.
Policy & Economy
South Africa’s CPI slowed to 3.3% y/y vs 3.6% forecast, core near 3.1% and headline −0.1% m/m. USDZAR firmed to 17.6, R2035 yields dipped to 9.1%, banks rallied—yet SARB faces a Thursday dilemma: hold credibility at 7.00% or cut 25bp to aid growth.
Policy & Economy
Sahel’s ICC exit deepens investor fears: rising spreads, fragile bonds, and opaque resource-backed deals push Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso further from global capital markets’ confidence.