Economic Policy & Global Economy

Markets

Barrick vs. Bamako: Gold’s Sovereignty Showdown in West Africa

Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD; TSX: ABX) faces a Malian clampdown that froze 600k oz of output worth USD 1.4bn, pulling shares near USD 18.86. Arbitration at ICSID looms, but sovereign defiance adds risk as bullion (XAUUSD) trades above USD 2,400 and peers like Newmont (NYSE: NEM) outperform.

Policy & Economy

Gold or Burden? Rwanda’s Path to Nuclear Energy and Fiscal Sustainability

Rwanda’s bold nuclear plan promises energy sovereignty but raises hard fiscal questions. This stress-test dashboard tracks debt, models growth scenarios, and contrasts market vs concessional financing paths to spotlight the country’s true fiscal resilience.

Markets

Licences or Lifelines: Equatorial Guinea’s High-Stakes Pitch to Investors

Equatorial Guinea is betting on its 2026 oil licensing round to reverse a collapse from 400k bpd in 2004 to just 50k today. Success could ease fiscal strain and tighten credit spreads; failure risks deeper recession and IMF dependence.

Markets

Gupta’s Next Frontier: Will Cameroon’s Bauxite Become the New Guinea?

Afriland Bank and a Gagan Gupta-linked firm are eyeing Cameroon’s 1+ bn tonne bauxite reserves, blending finance and infrastructure to challenge Guinea’s 90m+ tonne exports. Success could reshape Africa’s aluminium future; failure risks another stalled mining dream.

Markets

Kambove Expansion Signals CNMC’s Push to Cement DRC as a Copper-Cobalt Powerhouse

CNMC’s US$85.8m expansion of DRC’s Kambove mine deepens China’s grip on copper and cobalt. By upgrading shafts, plants, and ESG systems, CNMC signals that mid-tier projects matter in the race to control minerals driving the energy transition.

Markets

Capital Flows Reverse—DTB’s Burundi Sale and the Future of Frontier Finance

DTB Kenya’s sale of its 83% Burundi stake signals a shift in African banking: capital is being pulled from small, high-risk markets toward stronger hubs. For investors, it mirrors global retrenchment trends and highlights frontier fragility.

Markets

Alios Finance’s CFA 9 Billion Gamble: Can Nonbank Credit Rewrite Cameroon’s Future?

Alios Finance’s CFA 9 bn raise signals nonbank finance’s growing role in Cameroon. As sovereign yields top 10% and credit access lags at 19%, the firm’s bet on leasing and SME lending could redefine CEMAC’s financial future—or expose systemic fragility.

Policy & Economy

From Symbolism to Substance: Will Investors Buy Cameroon’s $2B Port Vision?

Douala Port’s 150th anniversary ambition—an extra $2B in CEMAC trade by 2030—signals Cameroon’s bid to become a regional logistics hub. Yet high sovereign yields, corridor bottlenecks, and rising competition cast doubt on execution and investor appetite.

Africa

Côte d’Ivoire’s Digital Leap—$100M Signal, $100B Gap

EXIM’s $100M guarantee for Côte d’Ivoire’s digital sector via Citi (NYSE: C) and Cybastion signals U.S. intent to de-risk African tech. Yet against a $100B need, its scale raises doubts—catalyst for capital or just geopolitical posturing?

Policy & Economy

Nelson Mandela Bay’s R1.58bn Deficit: What It Signals for South Africa’s Municipal Finance

Nelson Mandela Bay’s R1.58bn deficit signals more than local mismanagement: soaring water and power losses, unpaid bills, and weak collections highlight systemic municipal fragility that could spill into South Africa’s sovereign risk profile.

Policy & Economy

Cybastion, EXIM, and Côte d’Ivoire’s $100M Digital Bet: Catalyst or Geopolitical Experiment?

EXIM’s $100M guarantee for Côte d’Ivoire’s digital sector, executed via Cybastion, signals U.S. intent to de-risk African tech finance. Yet its modest scale versus $100B needs raises doubts over whether it’s a catalyst for scale or just geopolitical signaling.

Policy & Economy

Inflation at 28%, Bonds at 9%—Why a 50bps Cut Could Redefine Nigeria’s Market Path

Nigeria’s CBN cuts rates 50bps to 27%, its first since 2020. With inflation at 28% and Eurobond yields near 9%, the move signals a cautious pivot to growth. Will banks like ZENITHBANK, GTCO, and ACCESSCORP pass it on—or will FX fragility erase the gains?

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