Economic Policy & Global Economy

European Union (EU)

Policy Trap Forces Higher Risk Premium on EUR Assets

Stagnant growth near 1.2%, inflation at 2%, and high debt levels confine Europe’s policy options, forcing investors to demand a higher structural risk-premium on EUR-zone assets.

Nigeria

Nigeria’s Tax Gamble That Could Cost More Than It Earns

Nigeria plans to triple capital gains tax on foreign investors from 10 % to 30 %, risking capital flight as equities on the NGXGROUP face repricing. With USD/NGN ≈ 1 600, inflation at 33 %, and Eurobond yields near 12 %, policy credibility is again on the line.

Frontier Markets

Kenya’s Tea Fields Reveal the Hidden Cost of Climate Volatility

Kenya’s tea output has fallen 11% in 2025, exports are slipping, and prices (USD 2.05/kg) hover near cost as erratic weather, weak demand, and global price shifts strain Africa’s top tea exporter, pressuring the shilling (USD/KES: KES=) and regional supply chains.

Markets

Rwanda’s 8.9 Percent Growth Tests if UK Capital Can Anchor a Frontier Hub

UK–Rwanda trade hit £57m in Q1 2025, up 58%. GDP grew 8.9% in 2024, FDI inflows reached USD 459m, yet Eurobond yields trade near 9%. With LSE firms (HSBA, VOD, LGEN) eyeing Kigali, the new British Chamber could decide if growth becomes true investability.

Policy & Economy

Steel Revival Hinges on Currency Stability and Reform

Egypt’s steel plan faces FX shocks and volatile inputs, with iron ore near USD 95–100/t and the pound down 40% since 2022. Stability in currency, energy, and rates will decide if reforms spark exports and jobs or remain another shelved industrial blueprint.

Markets

A 39% Profit Surge Meets 14% NPLs: Will Investors Buy Family Bank’s Listing Story?

Family Bank eyes NSE listing by introduction Oct 27. H1 2025 net profit up 39% to KSh 2.28bn, deposits +26% to KSh 150bn, assets at KSh 193bn. With NPLs at 14%, investors will weigh liquidity, governance, and growth vs peers KCB, EQTY, COOP.

Markets

Egypt’s Energy Paradox and the Risk-Reward Equation for ENI, BP, CVX, and TTE

Eni (BIT:ENI) commits $8bn to Egypt, betting on Zohr’s output and LNG hub ambitions. With BP (LSE:BP), TotalEnergies (EPA:TTE), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), and banks like COMI (EGX:COMI) watching, Cairo’s export–import paradox is a high-stakes stress test.

Markets

Investors Beware: Caps on Interest Income Threaten EQTY (NSE:EQTY), KCB (NSE:KCB) and Africa’s Banking ROEs

Kenya MPs eye stricter in duplum rule as NPLs hover at 15%. Equity (NSE:EQTY, mcap US$2.2bn) and KCB (NSE:KCB, mcap US$1.8bn) risk margin compression with net interest income >65% of revenue. Banks may retreat to corporates, reshaping Africa’s credit landscape.

Markets

Tourism as Ghana’s Hidden Foreign Reserve Engine

Ghana’s tourism earned GH¢15.42bn (≈USD1.1bn) from 901,448 arrivals, avg spend USD1,200/visitor. Revenue rivals cocoa (LSE:HOTC) & oil, easing FX strain (GHS/USD=X) and Eurobond risk (LSE:GHANA31) but depends on policy to sustain yield.

Markets

Kenya’s KSh 2 Trillion Bond Boom: Deepening Liquidity or Brewing Volatility?

Kenya’s bond market (CBK:KENBON) has smashed the KSh 2 trillion turnover mark in record time, signaling unprecedented liquidity. But beneath the milestone lies a fiscal tightrope—depth may fuel volatility if maturities strain (NSE:KCB, NSE:EQTY).

Markets

What Nigeria’s New World Bank Loans Signal to Markets

Standard Chartered (LSE:STAN), SocGen (EPA:GLE) and BNP Paribas (EPA:BNP) are retreating from Africa as costs rise and margins shrink. Equity (NSE:EQTY), KCB (NSE:KCB) and Access Bank (NGX:ACCESSCORP) are expanding, reshaping credit flows and investor dynamics.

Markets

Africa’s Banking Landscape Shifts: From Multinational Retreat to Local Resilience

Standard Chartered (LSE:STAN), Société Générale (EPA:GLE), and BNP Paribas (EPA:BNP) are scaling back in Africa. Rising costs and shrinking margins push exits, while Equity (NSE:EQTY), KCB (NSE:KCB), and Access Bank (NGX:ACCESSCORP) expand, redefining market dynamics for investors.

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