Analysis of monetary policy, fiscal frameworks, trade dynamics, taxation, and structural reforms. Clear links to growth, inflation, employment, and financial stability across advanced and emerging economies.
Policy & Economy
South Africa’s withdrawal of Credit Act amendments signals reform paralysis, not mere regulatory noise. With GDP growth near 1%, debt/GDP at 72%, and SAGBs yielding 11.5%, markets see a rentier equilibrium: bonds as carry trades, rand as volatility hedge, banks as stagnation proxies.
Policy & Economy
China’s August unemployment edged up to 5.3%, but investors read more than a decimal: weak labor absorption, graduate surpluses, and structural mismatches signal fragile demand, with ripples across U.S. tech earnings, European exports, African commodities, and global capital flows.
Policy & Economy
African leaders meet in New York on Sept 21–22 for the Unstoppable Africa Summit, but markets eye execution. Ghana 2032s (XS2507008940) yield >18%, Kenya 2027s (XS2013531433) 11%. Will pledges lift AFK, JMIA, EMB, or fade as rhetoric? FX from NGN=X to ZAR=X waits on real inflows.
Policy & Economy
Burkina Faso’s move to scrap visa fees for all African travelers is more than symbolism. It is a fiscal gamble that swaps steady fee income for the hope of higher tourism, trade and service revenues—one that investors will track for its ripple effects across airlines, hotels and sovereign bonds.
Markets
California’s trucking collapse shows oversupply and retreat. India faces driver shortages, Latin America struggles with costly roads, and Africa—undersupplied but growing 6–7% annually toward USD 500B—emerges as the frontier, offering 8–12% IRRs where others strain.
Markets
China’s banks deployed over US$3.2 trillion in tech loans by mid-2025, while Africa’s startups raised under US$3 billion in 2023. This vast credit gap shows one system risking misallocation through excess and another held back by scarcity, with major implications for global investors.
Markets
Tunisia and Egypt tout a new “model partnership” in trade, but with volumes under $0.5B, real progress hinges on shipping, customs, and finance reforms to turn rhetoric into bankable deals.
Markets
Tanzania and Ethiopia push energy reforms—Tanzania via upstream regulation with Algeria, Ethiopia through fuel liberalization and renewables. Investors watch for fiscal gains, ESG alignment, and investable outcomes within 12–24 months.