Crude, natural gas, OPEC, inventories, and global supply chains.
Central Africa
BEAC’s CFAF 750bn tender steadies CEMAC liquidity as growth trends 2.6% and inflation 2.6%. Watch BZ=F and EMB for oil and frontier spread signals while interbank spreads compress and BVMAC one-year yields retrace into Q1-2026.
Libya
Libya’s LBC–IsDB workshop targets SME export formalisation as BZ=F holds near $85 and XAUUSD stays elevated. With GDP 3.0–3.5% and USD/LYD broadly stable, a 20–30% rise in registered SME exports could cut FX settlement to under 30 days.
Nigeria
Shell’s $2 billion HI gas FID adds 350 mmscfd capacity, strengthening Nigeria’s LNG and FX resilience as NGN=X stabilizes; SHEL leads execution while BZ=F oil and TTF=F gas benchmarks anchor revenue outlook and investor confidence through 2028.
Nigeria
Nigeria’s three-day Dangote Refinery strike cut output by about 283,000 bpd, exposing the country’s energy fragility. Brent (ICE: LCOc1) rose to USD 85.30 while the naira (USD/NGN ≈ 1,610) weakened, underscoring how labor unrest can ripple through global oil markets.
Egypt
Qatar-Energy’s 27 % stake in Egypt’s offshore Block 3 marks a strategic Gulf return to North Africa’s energy scene. With Egypt’s FX reserves near USD 36 bn and inflation ≈ 33 %, the deal brings capital, credibility, and stability to Cairo’s upstream revival.
Oil & Gas
Oil’s rebound to USD 85 (LCOc1) after OPEC+’s modest hike hides fragility. Demand from China softens, US10Y (^TNX) ≈ 4.35% tightens credit, and Africa faces inflation strain as USD/KES and USD/TZS weaken. Relief rally or last gasp of petro-policy credibility?
Markets
Eni (BIT:ENI) commits $8bn to Egypt, betting on Zohr’s output and LNG hub ambitions. With BP (LSE:BP), TotalEnergies (EPA:TTE), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), and banks like COMI (EGX:COMI) watching, Cairo’s export–import paradox is a high-stakes stress test.
Markets
Equatorial Guinea is betting on its 2026 oil licensing round to reverse a collapse from 400k bpd in 2004 to just 50k today. Success could ease fiscal strain and tighten credit spreads; failure risks deeper recession and IMF dependence.
Markets
TotalEnergies (TTE) exits OML 118 in a $510m deal, handing Shell (SHEL) & Eni (ENI) more oil and up to $1–2bn in future liabilities. Nigeria pumps 1.45mbpd vs 1.8mbpd OPEC quota; any 40–50kbpd uplift could add $1.2–1.5bn yearly at Brent $84/bbl.
Markets
South Sudan’s charges against VP Riek Machar threaten its oil lifeline. A collapse of the peace deal could cut output from 150 to 115 kbpd (thousand barrels per day), erase up to $450m yearly, push inflation beyond 60 percent, lift Brent (ICE:LCOc1) by $2–5/bbl, and widen East African spreads.
Markets
Tunisia and Egypt tout a new “model partnership” in trade, but with volumes under $0.5B, real progress hinges on shipping, customs, and finance reforms to turn rhetoric into bankable deals.