Nigerian markets, FX, inflation, oil, and reform dynamics
Nigeria
Nigeria’s three-day Dangote Refinery strike cut output by about 283,000 bpd, exposing the country’s energy fragility. Brent (ICE: LCOc1) rose to USD 85.30 while the naira (USD/NGN ≈ 1,610) weakened, underscoring how labor unrest can ripple through global oil markets.
Chad
Cameroon’s informal exports to Chad and Nigeria hit CFA 108.8B (≈ USD 180M), bypassing customs and distorting fiscal data. With XAF stability masking structural gaps, the flows reveal how trade thrives beyond BEAC control yet weakens tax revenue and policy reach.
Nigeria
Nigeria plans to triple capital gains tax on foreign investors from 10 % to 30 %, risking capital flight as equities on the NGXGROUP face repricing. With USD/NGN ≈ 1 600, inflation at 33 %, and Eurobond yields near 12 %, policy credibility is again on the line.
Markets
Standard Chartered (LSE:STAN), SocGen (EPA:GLE) and BNP Paribas (EPA:BNP) are retreating from Africa as costs rise and margins shrink. Equity (NSE:EQTY), KCB (NSE:KCB) and Access Bank (NGX:ACCESSCORP) are expanding, reshaping credit flows and investor dynamics.
Policy & Economy
Nigeria’s CBN cuts rates 50bps to 27%, its first since 2020. With inflation at 28% and Eurobond yields near 9%, the move signals a cautious pivot to growth. Will banks like ZENITHBANK, GTCO, and ACCESSCORP pass it on—or will FX fragility erase the gains?
Markets
TotalEnergies (TTE) exits OML 118 in a $510m deal, handing Shell (SHEL) & Eni (ENI) more oil and up to $1–2bn in future liabilities. Nigeria pumps 1.45mbpd vs 1.8mbpd OPEC quota; any 40–50kbpd uplift could add $1.2–1.5bn yearly at Brent $84/bbl.
Markets
China’s banks deployed over US$3.2 trillion in tech loans by mid-2025, while Africa’s startups raised under US$3 billion in 2023. This vast credit gap shows one system risking misallocation through excess and another held back by scarcity, with major implications for global investors.