Nigeria
Lagos’s ₦874bn debt highlights Nigeria’s fiscal divide as ₦4.43trn FAAC flows sustain states, USDNGN=X steadies near ₦1,460 and NGGB10Y yields 17%, while EMB and AFK track frontier risk and CL=F, BZ=F shape oil-linked revenue exposure.
Egypt
Egypt positions 2026 as a structural pivot, targeting growth through Suez Canal recovery, export expansion, and fiscal restraint; EGP=X stability, EMB spreads, and 10Y yields will test if reforms deliver durable gains amid CL=F and ^TNX volatility.
Togo
Togo’s programme budgeting tightens fiscal control as BCEAO holds easier settings; credible delivery could compress auction yields despite pressures from BZ=F and ^TNX while EM beta via EMB remains supportive for risk pricing.
Botswana
Botswana’s 300 MW baseload move tightens macro resilience as reserves hover near $3.53bn and the policy rate stays at 1.90%; sponsor leverage extends via NSE:JINDALSTEL while regional FX risk tracks ZAR=X through SAPP-linked terms-of-trade shocks.
Morocco
Safran (EPA:SAF) complex anchors Morocco’s aerospace upgrade; spillovers to Airbus (EPA:AIR) and Boeing (NYSE:BA) deepen exports, while FDI above 3% of GDP and low CPI sustain eurobond spread compression through 2028.
Nigeria
Nigeria issues ₦4trn bonds to settle GenCo arrears; USDNGN=X stability and EMB spreads will gauge whether liquidity lifts dispatch sustainably or shifts risk onto the sovereign curve as CL=F volatility and local yields drive refinancing pressure.
Senegal
Parainvest’s CFAF 10.5b Savana acquisition marks domestic rotation into yield assets as EURUSD=X-anchored stability and BZ=F terms-of-trade support valuations; watch ADR, occupancy, EBITDA margins, and hotel-debt spreads versus regional sovereigns.
Kenya
Kenya leans on parastatal cuts and asset sales as USDKES=X steadies near 129 and EMB signals firmer EM risk; local 10Y around 13.5% stays elevated versus single-digit Eurobond yields, leaving execution as the core catalyst.
Algeria
Algeria projects 4.1% growth with a 12.4% deficit; Brent (BZ=F), reserves, and EMB will signal whether execution compresses spreads or DZD=X faces pressure as capital outlays rise and non-oil growth targets meet procurement and financing constraints.
Libya
CBL’s digital clampdown formalizes trade and curbs FX leakage as BZ=F stays range-bound; adoption metrics guide risk premia while networks MA and V benefit from higher acceptance, signaling conditional monetary consolidation if execution holds.
Egypt
EGPT advances while USD/EGP=X holds steady; inflation at 11.7% and reserves near $49.5B tighten risk premia, but bills at 26–27% and EGYPT2033 in high single digits keep funding costs elevated, leaving credibility and duration risk near-term drivers.
Tanzania
Pemba dispute tests Tanzania’s ESG credibility as TZ10Y yields near 15% and TZD2028 holds around 6.2%; EMB compression offsets CL=F volatility while environmental enforcement becomes key to frontier funding stability.