DR Congo
The Congolese franc appreciated 6.31% as authorities denied reserve intervention, crediting mining inflows, fiscal restraint, and tighter policy; sustained FX stability will hinge on HG=F and CL=F trends, reserve cover above three months, and inflation easing below 8% through 2026.
Cameroon
Cameroon appoints Bloomfield for its first local-currency sovereign rating, signaling deeper CFA-bond market reform. Track BZ=F and EMB as oil prices and frontier spreads test whether CFA yields compress sustainably by mid-2026.
Mozambique
Mozambique’s confidence index drops to 89.8 as MZN=X steadies near 63.5 and CL=F holds low-80s; the 2031 eurobond near 11.1% signals stabilization, but high lending spreads and micro-frictions still suppress capex and credit formation.
Kenya
KPLC.NR shares fell 20% after FY2025 results showed revenue down 5.1% and profit down 18.7%. Markets eye KES=X stability, tariff resets, and rate moderation as key to restoring margins and narrowing the utility’s risk premium within two quarters.
Algeria
Algeria’s 2026 Bill tilts to base-broadening over rate hikes; CL=F steady near low-80s while DZD=X around 130 supports disinflation. Credible enforcement could lift non-oil revenue >10% y/y and narrow the 2024 deficit by 3 ppt through 2026.
Ghana
Ghana’s AGOA lapse imposes 10–15% MFN tariffs, squeezing margins and FX. Track USDGHS=X for currency pressure and CC=F, GC=F for commodity buffers, alongside 7–10y auction cut-offs for term-premium signals through 2026–2027.
Togo
BlueInvest Africa links SMEs and capital as Lomé scales the blue economy; EMB and AFK track frontier appetite while CL=F shapes current-account risk; delivery on a €200m pipeline and TEU gains will determine durable spread compression.
Rwanda
Rwanda accelerates SOE listings to deepen BK.RW, CTL.RW, MTNR.RW liquidity as GDP grows 7.8%, CPI eases to 7.3%, and policy rate holds at 6.75%. With market-cap/GDP at 21% and reserves at 5.2 months, Kigali targets regional capital-market scale.
Libya
Libya’s CBL renews IMF dialogue to unify policy, targeting a parallel premium cut below 15% and reserves near USD 100 bn as Brent oil (BZ=F) stabilizes output around 1.2 mb/d; frontier flows via XSFR.L gauge confidence in reform credibility.
Nigeria
Nigeria’s cost squeeze persists as USDNGN steadies near 1,465 and NGE tracks selective equity strength; one-year bills ~21% and 10-year yields ~15.6% flag elevated risk premia while bank fees and layered taxes compress real-sector margins.
Egypt
Egypt plans to cut debt-to-GDP below 75% as EGP=X holds near 47.6 and EGYPT 2029 yields 6.5–7.5%; achieving ≥2% primary surplus and reserves above USD 45B through 2026 could reprice spreads versus EMB and restore fiscal credibility.
United States
IBIT movements ≈9,000 BTC while BTC-USD hovers near USD 106,000 and CME BTC1! basis remains positive; flows reflect ETF redemptions, not selling, with ≈USD 360M outflows absorbed by USD 30–40B daily liquidity.