Libya
Libya targets 1.6 mbpd by end-2026 with XOM and CVX backing; BZ=F steady near USD 85 while LYD stability and sovereign spread compression depend on sustained exports and uninterrupted terminal operations.
Algeria
Algeria’s 2028 cashless plan formalizes liquidity flows, strengthens policy transmission, and narrows sovereign spreads; DZD=X reflects currency discipline while BZ=F links fiscal stability to commodity exposure in a USD 288 billion economy.
South Africa
RMB Corvest’s Fundi acquisition expands exposure to South Africa’s ZAR 450bn education finance market; FSR.JO tracks sector earnings while USDZAR=X pressures input costs—loan growth, NPLs below 6%, and margins will test resilience by 2026.
Tunisia
Tunisia’s 2026 budget tightens the deficit near 3% of GDP and conditions SOE support on governance milestones; TND=X steadies as CL=F-linked liabilities shrink, with spreads seen narrowing 150–200 bps if reforms sustain into 2026.
Senegal
Senegal raises CFAF 450 billion under a new financing doctrine, shifting debt toward local markets and tighter audit rules. Watch BZ=F near USD 80 and EMB +15 bps YTD as WAEMU yields 6.3–6.5% test compression through mid-2026.
Zambia
Zambia commissions UCF’s 85 MW plant as ZMW=X holds near 22.6 and HG=F trades around $4.10/lb; ≈45 MW grid dispatch plus captive supply cuts outage risk, supporting eurobond spread compression if operational uptime and payments remain disciplined.
Cabo Verde
Cabo Verde’s Rabidantes reforms could lift taxable GDP and expand deposits as EURUSD=X stability and CL=F trends support inclusion, narrowing the 9% GDP current-account gap and improving FM frontier risk metrics within two years.
Kenya
Kenya’s event week doubles Nairobi–Kisumu fares to KSh 23k amid capacity strain and fuel costs above USD 86. Watch USDKES=X for FX tightening and BZ=F for fuel trends as inflation dynamics shape rate-cut timing through Q4 2025–Q1 2026.
Uganda
URSB targets 235,000 registrations as BoU holds 9.75%; inflation at 4.0% and growth near 6% set the backdrop. SBU and DFCU on USE, plus EMB and AFK, track whether formalization converts into credit expansion and durable fiscal gains.
Zambia
Zambia’s pharma push targets import substitution as Brent (BZ=F) holds near USD 85 and EMB tightens; USD 80m annual FX savings, 7.5% inflation, and non-copper exports up 0.5–1.0% of GDP would confirm execution through 2026.
South Africa
South Africa tightens contract oversight as ZAR=X holds near 17.4 and 10-year yields stay around 9.0%; CPI 3.3%, repo 7.0%, and debt 77% of GDP show governance now steering fiscal credibility and JALSH performance.
Cabo Verde
Cabo Verde pivots toward regulated, skills-based tourism to deepen value retention and sustain the euro peg; EURCVE=X and eurobond XS2108083806 track investor confidence and policy execution over the next 12–24 months.