Egypt
Qatar-Energy’s 27 % stake in Egypt’s offshore Block 3 marks a strategic Gulf return to North Africa’s energy scene. With Egypt’s FX reserves near USD 36 bn and inflation ≈ 33 %, the deal brings capital, credibility, and stability to Cairo’s upstream revival.
Markets
M-KOPA posts USD 9.2M profit as Kenya’s fintech shifts to asset-backed finance. Revenue surges 66% to USD 253.5M. With USD/KES ≈ 129.4 and frontier yields above 10%, M-KOPA’s e-mobility pivot shows African credit can turn ESG capital into sustainable profit.
Chad
Cameroon’s informal exports to Chad and Nigeria hit CFA 108.8B (≈ USD 180M), bypassing customs and distorting fiscal data. With XAF stability masking structural gaps, the flows reveal how trade thrives beyond BEAC control yet weakens tax revenue and policy reach.
Kenya
Kenya’s CBK cut its benchmark rate to 9.25%, the 8th straight easing, as inflation cools to 4.6% and the shilling (USD/KES: 128.5) steadies. With NSE: NASI up 0.6% and US10Y: ^TNX at 4.35%, markets test whether liquidity trumps currency risk in Africa’s top frontier economy.
Mozambique
Mozambique (BVM: MZSE) is reforming fast. Market cap ≈ USD 2B (<10 % of GDP), 5Y T-Bond (MZGB05Y) yields 17 %, Eurobond 2031 (ISIN XS2051363195) at 11.4 %. With IMF (ECF) support and AELP links, the frontier market is turning reform into investable depth.
Togo
Togo’s 51% surge in development aid to USD 745 million signals renewed donor confidence but deepens concessional dependence. With debt near 58% of GDP and low tax revenue, Lomé’s stability rests more on grants than markets—buying time, not autonomy.
Morocco
Morocco’s FEC is evolving from lender to development platform, managing MAD 35 bn (≈ USD 3.4 bn) in municipal loans while preparing to structure local ESG projects and bond markets. If executed well, it could redefine Africa’s sub-sovereign finance model.
Oil & Gas
Oil’s rebound to USD 85 (LCOc1) after OPEC+’s modest hike hides fragility. Demand from China softens, US10Y (^TNX) ≈ 4.35% tightens credit, and Africa faces inflation strain as USD/KES and USD/TZS weaken. Relief rally or last gasp of petro-policy credibility?
Currencies
As the U.S. shutdown drags on, USD/ZAR (ZAR=) slides toward 18.9, USD/NGN (NGN=) nears 1,620, and USD/KES (KES=) hits 129.4. Dollar strength (DXY: DX-Y.NYB ≈ 105.8) and high US10Y (CBOE: ^TNX ≈ 4.35%) expose how Washington’s gridlock ripples through Africa’s markets.
Kenya
Kenya’s US$1 billion Eurobond buyback of its 2028 notes marks a bold test of frontier-market discipline. Swapping short-term pressure for higher long-term yields, Nairobi signals credibility—but at a rising cost in global capital markets.
Gold & Precious Metals
Gold nears $4,000/oz (XAU/USD) as Washington’s gridlock fuels global risk aversion. The USD/ZAR (ZAR=) slides to 18.9, while US10Y (^TNX ≈ 4.35%) and DXY (≈ 105.8) tighten liquidity, exposing how Africa’s frontier currencies weaken when safe-haven demand surges.
Egypt
Egypt’s USD 4 billion solar-plus-storage deal with Scatec ASA (OSE: SCATC) and EGX: EGAL turns carbon policy into capital strategy. By tying renewables to export-exposed industry, Cairo just built the first replicable blueprint for frontier-market decarbonization.