Kenyan shilling, rates, debt, and growth outlook.
Kenya
Kenya’s CBK cut its benchmark rate to 9.25%, the 8th straight easing, as inflation cools to 4.6% and the shilling (USD/KES: 128.5) steadies. With NSE: NASI up 0.6% and US10Y: ^TNX at 4.35%, markets test whether liquidity trumps currency risk in Africa’s top frontier economy.
Kenya
Kenya’s US$1 billion Eurobond buyback of its 2028 notes marks a bold test of frontier-market discipline. Swapping short-term pressure for higher long-term yields, Nairobi signals credibility—but at a rising cost in global capital markets.
Kenya
Kenya’s current account deficit widens to KSh 83.7 bn (≈ USD 640 m) as exports slump 16% and financing leans on short-term inflows. With debt at 68% of GDP and Eurobond yields near 10%, markets question whether East Africa’s powerhouse can sustain its balance.
Frontier Markets
Kenya’s tea output has fallen 11% in 2025, exports are slipping, and prices (USD 2.05/kg) hover near cost as erratic weather, weak demand, and global price shifts strain Africa’s top tea exporter, pressuring the shilling (USD/KES: KES=) and regional supply chains.
Frontier Markets
Shri Krishana (NSE: SKOP) warns of >25% profit drop after H1 net fell 70% to KSh 2m. Borrowings hit KSh 150m, debt-to-equity 2.1×, interest cover just 1.16×. With Kenya’s 364-day T-bill at 17% and KES near 154/USD, survival hinges on Kisaju plant execution.
Markets
Kenya’s bond market (CBK:KENBON) has smashed the KSh 2 trillion turnover mark in record time, signaling unprecedented liquidity. But beneath the milestone lies a fiscal tightrope—depth may fuel volatility if maturities strain (NSE:KCB, NSE:EQTY).
Policy & Economy
EXIM’s $100M guarantee for Côte d’Ivoire’s digital sector, executed via Cybastion, signals U.S. intent to de-risk African tech finance. Yet its modest scale versus $100B needs raises doubts over whether it’s a catalyst for scale or just geopolitical signaling.
Policy & Economy
Kenya unlocked KSh2.65bn for 600k–680k tea farmers by activating KDIC pass-through protection on trust accounts. The cash jolt lifts rural wallets and trims “resolution friction” in agri-finance—mildly bullish for payments and deposits while tightening risk pricing.
Policy & Economy
Kenya is reviving the Sh337–340bn High Grand Falls dam (500–700 MW) after July’s PPP collapse. If bankable, it could cut system costs and lift KEGN/KPLC, cement names and banks—once procurement, hydrology and financing clear. Until then, it’s an option, not FID.
Markets
China’s banks deployed over US$3.2 trillion in tech loans by mid-2025, while Africa’s startups raised under US$3 billion in 2023. This vast credit gap shows one system risking misallocation through excess and another held back by scarcity, with major implications for global investors.