Coverage of IMF, World Bank, AfDB, OPEC, ECB, BIS, and G20. Track reports, programs, and decisions shaping sovereign risk, reforms, liquidity, and global markets.
Tanzania
AfDB’s USD 60m pledge to TADB expands capital and rural credit as XAUUSD stabilizes export earnings and BZ=F keeps fuel costs contained; TZS=X trades steady, reserves exceed five months, and growth holds near 6%.
Senegal
Senegal’s rerating hinges on execution: XS1790104530 requires spreads <700 bps as the peg keeps XOF=X stable; if CPI ≤4% and consolidation prints on schedule, markets migrate from tactical to structural allocations.
Libya
Libya’s CBL meets U.S. firms to restore FX access; BZ=F steady near USD 85 as LYD stability, reserve transparency, and oil-linked liquidity drive a cautious path toward full monetary reintegration.
Côte d’Ivoire
Côte d’Ivoire secures concessional anchors to compress refinancing risk as EM credit tracks EMB while energy volatility via CL=F tests buffers; growth ~6% and debt mid-50s of GDP sustain WAEMU benchmark status if execution metrics hold.
Mauritius
Mauritius’s enforcement signal keeps USD/MUR steady as the 10-year holds near 5.6%; if policy clarity persists, risk premia compress and frontier allocations via FM rotate in while MUR=X volatility stays contained.
Tunisia
Tunisia manages a narrow stability path as USD/TND (TND=X) volatility stays muted and oil (CL=F) risk caps disinflation; IMF projects 2.5% growth in 2025 and a ~3% deficit, keeping spreads elevated while duration premia anchor the local curve amid high global rates.
Algeria
Algeria’s 2025 upgrade signals steadiness, not lift-off; Brent (BZ=F) supports receipts while the dinar (DZD=X) stays stable, but wide deficits and shallow credit keep growth cyclical and policy credibility contingent through 2026.
Nigeria
Nigeria’s $2 trillion Commonwealth trade drive tests Abuja’s capacity for data-backed reform. With exports 78 % oil-based, GDP +3.9 %, inflation 28.3 %, and reserves 4.2 months, success hinges on execution that boosts NGX:ZENITHBANK, NGX:DANGCEM, and NGX:GTCO exposure to logistics gains.
Nigeria
IMF lifts Nigeria’s 2025 growth to 3.9%, yet markets stay cautious. Eurobond NGERIA47= 10.9%, MPR 26.75%, inflation 28%, and naira ₦1,540/USD tell another story—stability without confidence, yield without conviction, growth without reform.
Oil & Gas
Oil’s rebound to USD 85 (LCOc1) after OPEC+’s modest hike hides fragility. Demand from China softens, US10Y (^TNX) ≈ 4.35% tightens credit, and Africa faces inflation strain as USD/KES and USD/TZS weaken. Relief rally or last gasp of petro-policy credibility?
Markets
AfDB approves USD 22.8m for Mozambique to raise rice yields from 1t/ha to 4t/ha, lifting incomes to USD 1,000. A test for food security, ESG flows, and sovereign credibility, with investors watching agriculture as a macro risk factor.
Markets
BCEAO launches real-time payments in Togo with Coris (BRVM:CBI), Ecobank (BRVM:ETIT), and Oragroup (BRVM:ORGT). Backed by AfDB & Gates, it signals WAEMU’s digital shift. Success hinges on adoption, trust, and scaling beyond cash’s dominance.