Tanzania
Pemba dispute tests Tanzania’s ESG credibility as TZ10Y yields near 15% and TZD2028 holds around 6.2%; EMB compression offsets CL=F volatility while environmental enforcement becomes key to frontier funding stability.
Zambia
Eastern Water’s K13.6m arrears crystallize Zambia’s sub-sovereign risk as USDZMW=X ranges 22.5–23.9 and the local 10-year sits ~19–20%, with EMB and AFK framing external appetite while HG=F and DX-Y.NYB set the macro tape.
Morocco
Morocco’s China pivot targets a 20% manufacturing share by 2027, stable reserves above five months, and orderly MAD=X as CNY=X settlements grow; frontier risk premia ease if FM and AFK sustain inflows and local 10-year yields hold in the mid-4% range.
Seychelles
Seychelles leans on targeted income support while FX holds near USDSCR=X 14–15 and global duration (^TNX) plus EM credit risk (EMB) set the external backdrop; sustainability hinges on reserves ≥4 months and CPI at 2–4% through 2026 amid CL=F volatility.
Mauritius
Mauritius’s enforcement signal keeps USD/MUR steady as the 10-year holds near 5.6%; if policy clarity persists, risk premia compress and frontier allocations via FM rotate in while MUR=X volatility stays contained.
Zambia
Zambia leans on China-backed water capex as USDZMW=X steadies near 23 while HG=F tracks copper-driven buffers; local 10Y near 19–20% underscores execution risk even as inflation eases and reserves hold near four months.
Cameroon
Cameroon’s EUDR pivot ties cocoa and credit: with (CC=F) elevated and (NIB) trending higher, audited traceability can compress yields on XS1313779081 and XS2360598630, while HSY and NSRGY absorb margin pressure as supply tightens.
Libya
Libya’s LBC–IsDB workshop targets SME export formalisation as BZ=F holds near $85 and XAUUSD stays elevated. With GDP 3.0–3.5% and USD/LYD broadly stable, a 20–30% rise in registered SME exports could cut FX settlement to under 30 days.
Tanzania
Dar Port throughput up over 15% YoY as automation halves dwell time and lifts revenue; stable TZS=X near 2,600 per USD and oil prices (CL=F) near $80 sustain logistics margins while FDI above USD 1.6 bn signals durable trade-led growth momentum.
Togo
Togo embeds private insurers in UHC governance, shifting CFAF 25 bn arrears risk to markets. Regional 10-year yields (~7.4%) and frontier debt (EMB) could tighten as insurers like AXA (AXA.PA) and NSIA (BRVMCI) gain from rising health premiums.
Kenya
Kenya links with Indonesia ahead of IndoNEX 2025; USDKES=X volatility could compress as flows diversify while Indonesian risk appetite tracks ^JKSE and EIDO, signaling potential FDI into Kenya’s manufacturing and renewable energy chains.
Algeria
Algeria’s 2025 upgrade signals steadiness, not lift-off; Brent (BZ=F) supports receipts while the dinar (DZD=X) stays stable, but wide deficits and shallow credit keep growth cyclical and policy credibility contingent through 2026.