Europe
Europe’s move to raise carbon-credit usage from around 3% to 5% signals a shift in regulation, raising transition-risk premiums and challenging ESG valuations across energy-intensive sectors.
European Union (EU)
The EU plans an “in-kind” tariff tying Chinese finished-goods exports to mandatory rare-earth and metal deliveries, seeking to cut 75 % import dependence under its Critical Raw Materials Act as Eramet (PA: ERA) and Glencore (LSE: GLEN) gain.
Tanzania
EDFI’s $8.25m guarantee for DEG’s $25m CRDB (DSE: CRDB) loan signals renewed investor confidence and reduced risk premiums amid Tanzania’s 3.2% inflation and strong credit growth; yield gaps with Kenya’s KE10Y may narrow.
Germany
The EU steps up plans to counter China’s mineral-export curbs, pursuing diversification and recycling to protect clean-tech supply chains. Shorter hedges and higher working-capital needs signal tighter conditions even as CL=F eases and DXY stays firm.
Cyprus
IMF upgrades Cyprus growth outlook to nearly 3% in 2025; low inflation, strong tourism and services, and EU-funded investment anchor resilience. (DXY, CL=F)
Slovakia
Slovakia reviews refinery exposure to U.S. sanctions, weighing Druzhba pipeline risks and crude alternatives as ICE gasoil spreads and CL=F volatility guide margins. (DXY, CL=F)
Romania
Romania seeks flexible EU fiscal rules to pair credible consolidation with growth investment; balanced budget design would stabilise yields and sovereign spreads. (DXY, CL=F)
India
India’s Berlin visit targets supply-chain localization and export growth; monitor deal flow via GDAXI and INDA, currency risk through EURUSD=X and USDINR=X, and narrowing of the goods gap by USD 2 billion by FY26 if execution delivers.