Birr, reforms, industrial parks, debt, and growth strategy.
Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s first AfCFTA shipment to Kenya signals Africa’s trade integration in motion. With GDP growth near 7 % and 5 %, and currencies stabilizing (USD/KES ≈ 129.4), the two economies activate a USD 3.4 trillion market—testing Africa’s logistics, FX, and policy cohesion for global investors.
Markets
Ethiopia’s MPC kept rates at 15% (ETH-MPC-IR) but raised the credit ceiling to 24% (ETH-CREDIT-CEIL). Inflation eased to 13.6%, yet liquidity stress and external risks linger. A cautious hybrid, unlike Kenya, Ghana, or Nigeria.
Policy & Economy
Ethiopia’s $10B airport, $2.5B fertilizer venture, nuclear plans, and 1.5M housing units dwarf its fiscal space. With debt at 39% of GDP, reserves covering just 2.5 months of imports, and a euro-bond default unresolved, investors question if Addis’s mega-project pipeline is fiscal overreach.
Markets
Ethiopia’s $1B Eurobond trades near 92c, but Ghana’s yields once hit 30%+ and Zambia bonds linger at 50–60c. With $33B debt unsustainable, Addis now stands as a bellwether for Africa’s sovereign risk and frontier market contagion.
Regions
Ethiopia’s GERD doubles power supply, boosts exports, and reshapes Africa’s bond markets. Investors must weigh energy upside against water politics, debt stress, and a rising hydro-political risk premium.
Markets
Africa’s Declaration reframes climate finance as investment, seeking $50B yearly to unlock renewables, minerals, and carbon markets, adding 50k MW, $600B GDP, and 5M jobs by 2035.