FX drivers and outlooks for USD, EUR, JPY, CNY, GBP, and EM currencies.
Cabo Verde
Despite BCV’s injection of 1.4M coins (≈ CVE 140M / USD 1.3M), Cape Verde’s markets still face severe small-change shortages. Escudo (EUR/CVE: CVE=) stability masks a deeper liquidity gap—money exists on paper, not in people’s hands.
Currencies
As the U.S. shutdown drags on, USD/ZAR (ZAR=) slides toward 18.9, USD/NGN (NGN=) nears 1,620, and USD/KES (KES=) hits 129.4. Dollar strength (DXY: DX-Y.NYB ≈ 105.8) and high US10Y (CBOE: ^TNX ≈ 4.35%) expose how Washington’s gridlock ripples through Africa’s markets.
Gold & Precious Metals
Gold nears $4,000/oz (XAU/USD) as Washington’s gridlock fuels global risk aversion. The USD/ZAR (ZAR=) slides to 18.9, while US10Y (^TNX ≈ 4.35%) and DXY (≈ 105.8) tighten liquidity, exposing how Africa’s frontier currencies weaken when safe-haven demand surges.
Markets
NSE launches Banking Sector Index tracking lenders like EQTY (P/B 0.9x, ROE 23%) & KCB (0.8x, ROE 19%). Kenyan banks now benchmarked for ETFs & global flows. Sector trades at 0.6–0.9x P/B vs Nigeria 0.4x, South Africa 1.3x; NPLs still ~14%.
Markets
BCEAO launches real-time payments in Togo with Coris (BRVM:CBI), Ecobank (BRVM:ETIT), and Oragroup (BRVM:ORGT). Backed by AfDB & Gates, it signals WAEMU’s digital shift. Success hinges on adoption, trust, and scaling beyond cash’s dominance.
Markets
Tanzania’s Eurobond trades at 9.2%—close to Kenya and Ghana. AfDB’s Exim Bank guarantee is too small to shift flows, but its signaling value could shape spreads, SME risk premiums, and investor sentiment.
Markets
Malawi’s kwacha (MWK=X) rose on tobacco (CT=F) inflows, but a $3B trade gap and oil (CL=F) imports threaten reserves. With Zambia leaning on copper (HG=F), Malawi’s reliance on a single crop leaves forex stability fragile and vulnerable to reversal.
Markets
Rumors of a Liberian dollar shortage test confidence despite L$1.65bn vaults. USD/LRD=X surged ~10%, CPI eased to 7.4%, real yields near +10%. Yet markets eye reversal risk; remittances, credibility, and FX reserves matter more than MPR 17.25% or L$13bn sterilization for frontier debt spreads.