FX drivers and outlooks for USD, EUR, JPY, CNY, GBP, and EM currencies.
Morocco
Morocco’s nine-month deficit nears $5.4bn as Brent (BZ=F) holds high-$80s; steady dirham (MAD=X), 2.25% policy rate, and 2.9% 10-year yields cushion funding, but debt near 70% of GDP keeps term premia sensitive to execution risk.
Ghana
Ghana slows M2+ to 16.6% y/y; USDGHS=X steadies as disinflation advances. Frontier hard-currency risk compresses with EMB, but real credit remains negative and thin bank capital caps growth, keeping policy biased to the nominal anchor.
Chad
Chad’s approval of Konoom Mobile Money SA (capital XAF 500 million ≈ USD 0.8 million) disrupts a market where Orange (ORA.PA) and Airtel Africa (AAF.L) control ≈ 90 % of CEMAC’s XAF 1.83 trillion e-money float. The move localizes liquidity and signals fintech sovereignty within the CFA zone.
Tanzania
The Tanzanian shilling (TZS=X) has gained 1.2% YTD, outperforming USD/KES (-4.6%) and USD/UGX (-3.9%), with inflation steady at 3.2% and reserves near USD 5.5b. Credible policy, not appreciation, anchors its strength and draws investors seeking real yield and low volatility.
Global Trade
Silver (XAGUSD) surged past $53/oz, driving African premiums to $1.85 and exposing dependence on London pricing. With only 30% of output hedged and ZARUSD −3.6%, miners gained nominally but lost liquidity as volatility drained regional markets.
Tanzania
On the DSE (DSE:TZ), bond turnover rose from TZS 34.12 bn to 86.07 bn (+152%), dwarfing equities at TZS 2.56 bn. CRDB (DSE:CRDB) climbed 8.5% to TZS 1,280, while NMB (DSE:NMB) held TZS 7,800 and TBL (DSE:TBL) at TZS 10,200 — proof Tanzania’s market now grows through debt, not speculation.
Africa
Africa’s markets still trade emotion, not discipline. The kwacha [USDZMW] rallies on copper [HG1:COM], Kenya’s bonds bleed at 17%, and Nigeria’s banks boom on volatility. Until structure replaces sentiment, capital will keep fleeing at the first tremor.
Kenya
Kenya’s new crypto bill could turn Nairobi into Africa’s regulatory capital—or expose the limits of state control over digital finance. As the CBK and CMA tighten oversight, the continent’s battle between innovation and enforcement begins.
Nigeria
Nigeria’s trade growth slid from 2.04 % to 1.29 % as inflation above 20 % and a 26.75 % policy rate choke liquidity. The naira’s instability and high logistics costs expose a deeper disease—structural inefficiency that no tightening can cure.
Zambia
The kwacha (USDZMW) is soaring, up 23% YTD, lifted by copper (HG1:COM) near USD 9,800/t. Yet Zambia’s rally masks fragility: without diversification beyond First Quantum (TSX:FM), Barrick [NYSE:GOLD], and Vedanta [LSE:VED], the strength won’t last.
Kenya
Kenya’s KSh 41 billion debt “reduction” reflects currency valuation, not fiscal progress. As the shilling (USD/KES ≈ 129.2) firmed slightly, external debt looked smaller in local terms—but real liabilities remain unchanged, exposing an illusion of relief amid high yields.
Kenya
Kenya’s CBK cut its benchmark rate to 9.25%, the 8th straight easing, as inflation cools to 4.6% and the shilling (USD/KES: 128.5) steadies. With NSE: NASI up 0.6% and US10Y: ^TNX at 4.35%, markets test whether liquidity trumps currency risk in Africa’s top frontier economy.