Markets & policy across African economies: debt, FX, inflation & capital flows.
Egypt
EIB invests $38m in Egypt’s Tanmiya Fund II, signaling private equity’s return as inflation eases to 11–12% and reserves near $49bn; EGP=X stability, EMB spreads near 400bps, and ^TNX trends will test depth of Egypt’s reform-driven capital shift.
Nigeria
During Week 41 (6–10 Oct 2025), Nigeria’s market matured through yield, not speculation. ₦NGXASI rose 2.37% to 146,988 as bonds surged 1,038% in value. ₦MTNN, ₦AXAMANSARD, and ₦SOVRENINS led gains while liquidity shifted decisively toward government debt.
Tanzania
On the DSE (DSE:TZ), bond turnover rose from TZS 34.12 bn to 86.07 bn (+152%), dwarfing equities at TZS 2.56 bn. CRDB (DSE:CRDB) climbed 8.5% to TZS 1,280, while NMB (DSE:NMB) held TZS 7,800 and TBL (DSE:TBL) at TZS 10,200 — proof Tanzania’s market now grows through debt, not speculation.
Africa
Africa’s markets still trade emotion, not discipline. The kwacha [USDZMW] rallies on copper [HG1:COM], Kenya’s bonds bleed at 17%, and Nigeria’s banks boom on volatility. Until structure replaces sentiment, capital will keep fleeing at the first tremor.
Kenya
Kenya’s new crypto bill could turn Nairobi into Africa’s regulatory capital—or expose the limits of state control over digital finance. As the CBK and CMA tighten oversight, the continent’s battle between innovation and enforcement begins.
Nigeria
Nigeria’s trade growth slid from 2.04 % to 1.29 % as inflation above 20 % and a 26.75 % policy rate choke liquidity. The naira’s instability and high logistics costs expose a deeper disease—structural inefficiency that no tightening can cure.
Botswana
BoFiNet’s P12 million profit marks Botswana’s digital network rebound—but with margins near 2 %, cable theft losses, and weak growth, the state backbone must prove that social connectivity can coexist with commercial sustainability.
Zambia
The kwacha (USDZMW) is soaring, up 23% YTD, lifted by copper (HG1:COM) near USD 9,800/t. Yet Zambia’s rally masks fragility: without diversification beyond First Quantum (TSX:FM), Barrick [NYSE:GOLD], and Vedanta [LSE:VED], the strength won’t last.
Malawi
Malawi’s Salima Sugar Ltd turmoil exposes governance risk driving capital flight from frontier markets. With rivals Illovo Malawi [JSE:ILV], Zambia Sugar [LUSE:ZSUG], and parent AB Foods [LSE:ABF] thriving on autonomy, Malawi’s state control keeps returns below market parity.
Kenya
Kenya’s US$1.5 billion Eurobond issue and US$628 million buyback are a masterclass in optics—buying time, not solvency. Nairobi regains market access but deepens FX risk, proving that financial engineering cannot outrun fiscal gravity.
Botswana
Botswana’s new 24% local ownership law forces mining giants like De Beers [LSE:AAL] and future entrants to share equity with citizens—testing whether Africa’s most stable mining hub can expand resource sovereignty without scaring global capital.
Ghana
Fitch warns Ghana’s 26% policy rate will shrink bank margins by nearly 25% as Treasury yields drop to 15–17%. With banks still exposed to government debt and ROE set to fall below 12%, the country’s rate shift signals a new test for frontier-market credibility.