Markets & policy across African economies: debt, FX, inflation & capital flows.
Mozambique
Mozambique’s $6bn Mphanda Nkuwa project (EDM.MZ, HCB.MZ) faces a 12.5% WACC, $510m FCF, and 7.5% IRR. With Eskom (ESKOM.ZA) arrears at $1.2bn and Eurobond (MOZ2028.GB) maturities near, the project will define if clean energy can outpace fiscal gravity.
Chad
Chad’s approval of Konoom Mobile Money SA (capital XAF 500 million ≈ USD 0.8 million) disrupts a market where Orange (ORA.PA) and Airtel Africa (AAF.L) control ≈ 90 % of CEMAC’s XAF 1.83 trillion e-money float. The move localizes liquidity and signals fintech sovereignty within the CFA zone.
Rwanda
Rwanda’s services now power 49% of GDP and 17% of exports, led by fintechs BOKG.RW and MTNR.RW. With GDP at USD 13.2 bn and inflation near 5%, Kigali targets ICT exports at 15% by 2027, betting policy discipline can turn stability into scale.
Tanzania
The Tanzanian shilling (TZS=X) has gained 1.2% YTD, outperforming USD/KES (-4.6%) and USD/UGX (-3.9%), with inflation steady at 3.2% and reserves near USD 5.5b. Credible policy, not appreciation, anchors its strength and draws investors seeking real yield and low volatility.
Nigeria
IMF lifts Nigeria’s 2025 growth to 3.9%, yet markets stay cautious. Eurobond NGERIA47= 10.9%, MPR 26.75%, inflation 28%, and naira ₦1,540/USD tell another story—stability without confidence, yield without conviction, growth without reform.
Tanzania
CRDB Bank (DSE:CRDB) has issued TSh 150 bn (≈ USD 57 m) in local-currency credit to Tanzania’s coffee sector (ICO:COFFEE), signaling Africa’s growing ability to finance exports internally as global trade credit tightens and arabica prices stay volatile.
Ghana
NewGold ETF (JSE:GLD, GSE:GLD.GH) posted a 27% profit drop to USD 2.69 m as fee income weakened, yet bullion holdings rose to USD 2.64 bn. The fund remains fully backed by gold, offering safe XAUUSD exposure but limited yield potential.
Global Trade
Silver (XAGUSD) surged past $53/oz, driving African premiums to $1.85 and exposing dependence on London pricing. With only 30% of output hedged and ZARUSD −3.6%, miners gained nominally but lost liquidity as volatility drained regional markets.
Ghana
The Ghana Stock Exchange traded GH¢58.4m in Week 41, led by GCB (72.6%), MTNGH (24.6%), and CAL (+9.7%), as the GSE-CI held near 3,896 points. A HHI of 2,420 and CR5 of 78.2% show liquidity concentrated but stable—signaling institutional discipline, not retreat.
West Africa
The BRVM Composite (COMPOSITE) rose +0.87% to 332.53, driven by SAPH (+7.45%), TTF (+7.40%), and SOGB (+2.7%), while SNTS led turnover at FCFA 2.7 bn (33%). Market cap reached FCFA 12.8 tn, P/E 12.5×, yield 7.4%, signaling disciplined institutional flow.
Morocco
The Casablanca Stock Exchange cooled modestly as the MASI slipped 1.44% to 18,549. Large-caps like VICENNE (11.9% of turnover) and Attijariwafa Bank (MAD 157 billion cap) dominated a MAD 1.85 billion trade week—signaling rotation not retreat amid a 25.56% YTD gain.
Kenya
Actis exits Kenya property as KES=X trades 150–165 and frontier capital via FM rotates toward logistics and digital assets; if policy rates drop below 11% and vacancies tighten, funding costs fall and development risk can reprice.