Markets & policy across African economies: debt, FX, inflation & capital flows.
Kenya
Kenya links with Indonesia ahead of IndoNEX 2025; USDKES=X volatility could compress as flows diversify while Indonesian risk appetite tracks ^JKSE and EIDO, signaling potential FDI into Kenya’s manufacturing and renewable energy chains.
Egypt
IMF’s warning meets markets where ^TNX resets the discount rate and EGX30:IND rallies on liquidity over earnings; Egypt’s record reserves collide with 20% local yields as policy credibility decides whether spreads compress or widen.
South Africa
Business confidence at 121.1 lifts sentiment, but output hinges on power and rail capacity; JSE:AGL and JSE:SHP gain on cyclical tailwinds while local yields near 11% signal unresolved Eskom and Transnet risk.
Morocco
Morocco’s nine-month deficit nears $5.4bn as Brent (BZ=F) holds high-$80s; steady dirham (MAD=X), 2.25% policy rate, and 2.9% 10-year yields cushion funding, but debt near 70% of GDP keeps term premia sensitive to execution risk.
Senegal
Senegal’s CFA450B issue draws 150% demand as the 2033 USD bond yields near 14% while local 10Y clears below 7%. With HG=F steady and ^TNX elevated, Dakar leans on CFA buyers to compress spreads and reduce FX risk over 12–18 months.
Algeria
Algeria’s 2025 upgrade signals steadiness, not lift-off; Brent (BZ=F) supports receipts while the dinar (DZD=X) stays stable, but wide deficits and shallow credit keep growth cyclical and policy credibility contingent through 2026.
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso shifts to land-based taxation and universal tax-clearance, aiming to compress WAEMU yields via higher-quality revenues; execution risk stays in cadastral integration as external support rides XAUUSD strength and EM credit tone via EMB.
Nigeria
Shell’s $2 billion HI gas FID adds 350 mmscfd capacity, strengthening Nigeria’s LNG and FX resilience as NGN=X stabilizes; SHEL leads execution while BZ=F oil and TTF=F gas benchmarks anchor revenue outlook and investor confidence through 2028.
Ghana
Ghana slows M2+ to 16.6% y/y; USDGHS=X steadies as disinflation advances. Frontier hard-currency risk compresses with EMB, but real credit remains negative and thin bank capital caps growth, keeping policy biased to the nominal anchor.
Africa
Africa’s skills pivot links training to factory productivity and export depth; listed proxies include JSE:BAW and EGX:SWDY, with JSE:ADH leveraged to accredited pathways as placement and throughput metrics harden.
Kenya
Kenya 2032 Eurobond yields 10.6%, NSE All-Share flat (+0.2 % YTD), KES 156.7 / USD, inflation 8.3 %. Political tension lifts spreads +220 bps vs Tanzania as USD 42 m flows exit since July. Stability now dictates returns across frontier markets.
Nigeria
Nigeria’s $2 trillion Commonwealth trade drive tests Abuja’s capacity for data-backed reform. With exports 78 % oil-based, GDP +3.9 %, inflation 28.3 %, and reserves 4.2 months, success hinges on execution that boosts NGX:ZENITHBANK, NGX:DANGCEM, and NGX:GTCO exposure to logistics gains.