Markets & policy across African economies: debt, FX, inflation & capital flows.
Morocco
Safran (EPA:SAF) complex anchors Morocco’s aerospace upgrade; spillovers to Airbus (EPA:AIR) and Boeing (NYSE:BA) deepen exports, while FDI above 3% of GDP and low CPI sustain eurobond spread compression through 2028.
Nigeria
Nigeria issues ₦4trn bonds to settle GenCo arrears; USDNGN=X stability and EMB spreads will gauge whether liquidity lifts dispatch sustainably or shifts risk onto the sovereign curve as CL=F volatility and local yields drive refinancing pressure.
Cameroon
Cameroon’s Coeur de Ville codifies capex continuity as EMB gauges frontier credit appetite and AFK tracks Africa equity flows, while XAF=X and oil benchmarks CL=F and BZ=F shape imported input costs and funding spreads into 2027.
Senegal
Parainvest’s CFAF 10.5b Savana acquisition marks domestic rotation into yield assets as EURUSD=X-anchored stability and BZ=F terms-of-trade support valuations; watch ADR, occupancy, EBITDA margins, and hotel-debt spreads versus regional sovereigns.
Kenya
Kenya leans on parastatal cuts and asset sales as USDKES=X steadies near 129 and EMB signals firmer EM risk; local 10Y around 13.5% stays elevated versus single-digit Eurobond yields, leaving execution as the core catalyst.
Algeria
Algeria projects 4.1% growth with a 12.4% deficit; Brent (BZ=F), reserves, and EMB will signal whether execution compresses spreads or DZD=X faces pressure as capital outlays rise and non-oil growth targets meet procurement and financing constraints.
Libya
CBL’s digital clampdown formalizes trade and curbs FX leakage as BZ=F stays range-bound; adoption metrics guide risk premia while networks MA and V benefit from higher acceptance, signaling conditional monetary consolidation if execution holds.
Nigeria
Nigeria’s $15bn creative push formalizes SMEs as NGN=X steadies and frontier flows via FM track export fulfilment, bank credit growth, and IP uptake to gauge whether fashion can deliver scalable non-oil earnings and jobs by 2026–2028.
Egypt
EGPT advances while USD/EGP=X holds steady; inflation at 11.7% and reserves near $49.5B tighten risk premia, but bills at 26–27% and EGYPT2033 in high single digits keep funding costs elevated, leaving credibility and duration risk near-term drivers.
Tanzania
Pemba dispute tests Tanzania’s ESG credibility as TZ10Y yields near 15% and TZD2028 holds around 6.2%; EMB compression offsets CL=F volatility while environmental enforcement becomes key to frontier funding stability.
Zambia
Eastern Water’s K13.6m arrears crystallize Zambia’s sub-sovereign risk as USDZMW=X ranges 22.5–23.9 and the local 10-year sits ~19–20%, with EMB and AFK framing external appetite while HG=F and DX-Y.NYB set the macro tape.
Tunisia
Tunisia’s energy-weighted trade gap widens as Brent (BZ=F) stays elevated and the dinar (TND=X) trades near 2.92 per USD; USD bond yields remain mid-teens versus ^TNX, while EMB stability highlights Tunisia’s idiosyncratic risk premium.