Markets & policy across African economies: debt, FX, inflation & capital flows.
Libya
Libya’s RAMP integration strengthens reserve management and FX governance. With Brent (BZ=F) steady near $85 and EMB spreads tightening, investors see credible reform that could anchor inflation near 2–3% and reinforce Libya’s external balance through 2026.
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso accelerates import substitution via TEXFORCES-BF recapitalization; watch capacity, margins, arrears, and debt stability as CT=F and XSFR.L reflect commodity and frontier risk signals for policy credibility.
Cameroon
Cameroon’s customs outperformance narrows the primary deficit and strengthens CEMAC reserves, anchoring fiscal credibility amid commodity volatility; monitor CL=F and CC=F as trade-linked indicators guiding Cameroon USD-bond spreads into 2026.
Central Africa
BEAC’s CFAF 750bn tender steadies CEMAC liquidity as growth trends 2.6% and inflation 2.6%. Watch BZ=F and EMB for oil and frontier spread signals while interbank spreads compress and BVMAC one-year yields retrace into Q1-2026.
Tanzania
Tanzania’s TZS462b grain tender integrates fiscal policy with trade as USD/TZS=X steadies and CBOT wheat (ZW=F) slides 12%; success depends on ≥90% delivery, >85% storage use, and $200–250m export receipts by 2026.
Kenya
NCBA (NSE:NCBA) hits record highs on merger speculation with Stanbic (NSE:SBIC), lifting valuation to KSh124B as KES=X steadies and KE10Y=RR yields ease; investors test if ≥5% cost synergies and stable NPL ratios can sustain Kenya’s banking sector re-rating.
Côte d’Ivoire
AXIAN invests USD 58 million in Côte d’Ivoire’s solar grid expansion as CL=F volatility drives fuel-cost savings; Eurobond 2032 yields steady near 6.5% while EMB reflects tightening frontier spreads amid accelerating private renewable capital inflows.
Nigeria
Lagos’s ₦874bn debt highlights Nigeria’s fiscal divide as ₦4.43trn FAAC flows sustain states, USDNGN=X steadies near ₦1,460 and NGGB10Y yields 17%, while EMB and AFK track frontier risk and CL=F, BZ=F shape oil-linked revenue exposure.
Zambia
Zambia’s presumptive approvals speed energy investment as Eurobond yields (ZAM10Y) hover near 9.8% and kwacha (ZMW=X) stabilizes at ₭26.5; commissioning 600 MW by 2027 could lift GDP by 1 ppt and compress spreads sustainably.
Egypt
Egypt positions 2026 as a structural pivot, targeting growth through Suez Canal recovery, export expansion, and fiscal restraint; EGP=X stability, EMB spreads, and 10Y yields will test if reforms deliver durable gains amid CL=F and ^TNX volatility.
Togo
Togo’s programme budgeting tightens fiscal control as BCEAO holds easier settings; credible delivery could compress auction yields despite pressures from BZ=F and ^TNX while EM beta via EMB remains supportive for risk pricing.
Botswana
Botswana’s 300 MW baseload move tightens macro resilience as reserves hover near $3.53bn and the policy rate stays at 1.90%; sponsor leverage extends via NSE:JINDALSTEL while regional FX risk tracks ZAR=X through SAPP-linked terms-of-trade shocks.