Markets & policy across African economies: debt, FX, inflation & capital flows.
Ghana
Ghana’s AGOA lapse imposes 10–15% MFN tariffs, squeezing margins and FX. Track USDGHS=X for currency pressure and CC=F, GC=F for commodity buffers, alongside 7–10y auction cut-offs for term-premium signals through 2026–2027.
Togo
BlueInvest Africa links SMEs and capital as Lomé scales the blue economy; EMB and AFK track frontier appetite while CL=F shapes current-account risk; delivery on a €200m pipeline and TEU gains will determine durable spread compression.
Congo (Republic of)
Congo’s 2026 budget shift emphasizes fiscal discipline as Brent (BZ=F) trades near USD 85 and EMB spreads ease 60 bps; debt near 88% of GDP and CPI at 3.6% keep pressure on revenue gains, arrears cuts, and cash-flow transparency through 2026.
Rwanda
Rwanda accelerates SOE listings to deepen BK.RW, CTL.RW, MTNR.RW liquidity as GDP grows 7.8%, CPI eases to 7.3%, and policy rate holds at 6.75%. With market-cap/GDP at 21% and reserves at 5.2 months, Kigali targets regional capital-market scale.
Libya
Libya’s CBL renews IMF dialogue to unify policy, targeting a parallel premium cut below 15% and reserves near USD 100 bn as Brent oil (BZ=F) stabilizes output around 1.2 mb/d; frontier flows via XSFR.L gauge confidence in reform credibility.
Algeria
Algeria embeds fiscal modeling into its 2026 budget, linking BZ=F and NG=F price bands to deficit sensitivity, stabilizing issuance, and tightening spreads as forecast precision and transparency improve through 2026.
Burkina Faso
Burkina mandates NGO accounts at the Treasury Deposits Bank, tightening fiscal control and nudging bank funding costs higher. Track XAUUSD and EMB alongside deposit trends, loan pricing, and settlement timeliness to gauge liquidity and execution risk.
Nigeria
Nigeria’s cost squeeze persists as USDNGN steadies near 1,465 and NGE tracks selective equity strength; one-year bills ~21% and 10-year yields ~15.6% flag elevated risk premia while bank fees and layered taxes compress real-sector margins.
Egypt
Egypt plans to cut debt-to-GDP below 75% as EGP=X holds near 47.6 and EGYPT 2029 yields 6.5–7.5%; achieving ≥2% primary surplus and reserves above USD 45B through 2026 could reprice spreads versus EMB and restore fiscal credibility.
Tanzania
Tanzania integrates climate data into fiscal and debt policy, targeting lower food-CPI volatility and bond yields. Watch USDTZS=X and KC=F as indicators of macro stability and export performance through 2026–2027.
Tunisia
BCT keeps rates at 7.5% as inflation cools to 5.0%; reserves cover 105 days. TUNINDEX stays near 12,327 while EMB and CL=F track risk appetite, reflecting Tunisia’s strategy to anchor credibility over stimulus in a tightening global cycle.
Morocco
Coface maintains Morocco’s “B” risk grade as Eurobond spreads versus ^TNX and EMB remain tight; USDMAD=X stable and CL=F volatility contained; GDP growth near 4.5%, inflation below 1%, and reserves above USD 40 billion sustain investor confidence.