Markets & policy across African economies: debt, FX, inflation & capital flows.
Markets
Ecobank’s Design & Build Expo matters only if ETI (NGX\:ETI) turns optics into credit: receivables to cut DSO >90 days, 5–10% SME leasing, and a \$50–100m green window. Publish guarantees, LCY lines, a 6–12-month pipeline, and KPIs—or it’s PR, not spread-tightening deal flow.
Policy & Economy
Liberia’s anti-corruption drive shows momentum—CPI 27/100, Afrobarometer approval 54%—but markets want follow-through. Track peer curves (GHANA 2032, NGERIA 2031, SENEGL 2033, IVYCST 2032) and sector catalysts (TotalEnergies LB-6/11/17/29). When cases mature, spreads compress—if institutions hold.
Institutions
UNGA is noisy; capital isn’t. UBA’s whitepaper matters only if it shows hard metrics: $3–5bn size, ≥4× mobilization, AA/AAA wraps cutting 150–250 bps, ≥30% LCY/hedged, and a 6–12-month pipeline. Then tickers from ASI:LAG to J203 react; otherwise, it’s just polite applause.
Exchanges & Indices
The JSE surged in Week 37, fueled by a +R44.4B net foreign inflow into bonds. The Resource 10 Index soared +82.32% YoY, while weekly equity turnover value hit R166.1B. Strong conviction defined a bullish week for investors in South African markets.
Policy & Economy
South Africa’s withdrawal of Credit Act amendments signals reform paralysis, not mere regulatory noise. With GDP growth near 1%, debt/GDP at 72%, and SAGBs yielding 11.5%, markets see a rentier equilibrium: bonds as carry trades, rand as volatility hedge, banks as stagnation proxies.
Markets
NTC Global Trade’s R484m collapse, shadowed by van Niekerk’s murder, sharpens South Africa’s risk premium. With R262m owed and FSCA under scrutiny, investors eye USD/ZAR=X swings, 2030 Eurobond yields at 8.4%, and widening CDS as trust erodes in the country’s crypto oversight and rule-of-law.
Policy & Economy
African leaders meet in New York on Sept 21–22 for the Unstoppable Africa Summit, but markets eye execution. Ghana 2032s (XS2507008940) yield >18%, Kenya 2027s (XS2013531433) 11%. Will pledges lift AFK, JMIA, EMB, or fade as rhetoric? FX from NGN=X to ZAR=X waits on real inflows.
Markets
Malawi’s kwacha (MWK=X) rose on tobacco (CT=F) inflows, but a $3B trade gap and oil (CL=F) imports threaten reserves. With Zambia leaning on copper (HG=F), Malawi’s reliance on a single crop leaves forex stability fragile and vulnerable to reversal.
Markets
Rumors of a Liberian dollar shortage test confidence despite L$1.65bn vaults. USD/LRD=X surged ~10%, CPI eased to 7.4%, real yields near +10%. Yet markets eye reversal risk; remittances, credibility, and FX reserves matter more than MPR 17.25% or L$13bn sterilization for frontier debt spreads.
Policy & Economy
Burkina Faso’s move to scrap visa fees for all African travelers is more than symbolism. It is a fiscal gamble that swaps steady fee income for the hope of higher tourism, trade and service revenues—one that investors will track for its ripple effects across airlines, hotels and sovereign bonds.
Markets
South Sudan’s charges against VP Riek Machar threaten its oil lifeline. A collapse of the peace deal could cut output from 150 to 115 kbpd (thousand barrels per day), erase up to $450m yearly, push inflation beyond 60 percent, lift Brent (ICE:LCOc1) by $2–5/bbl, and widen East African spreads.
Markets
California’s trucking collapse shows oversupply and retreat. India faces driver shortages, Latin America struggles with costly roads, and Africa—undersupplied but growing 6–7% annually toward USD 500B—emerges as the frontier, offering 8–12% IRRs where others strain.