Markets & policy across African economies: debt, FX, inflation & capital flows.
Policy & Economy
Global chips hit USD 697B in 2025, with Taiwan holding 64% foundry share and exports at USD 165B. Africa imports 95%+ of chips, making South Africa’s alignment pivotal as China eyes a USD 100B fab push into emerging markets.
Policy & Economy
CAF’s $5B child pledge with UNICEF is more than a Latin story. For Africa—home to 40% of the world’s children—it signals that human capital is now investable infrastructure, with debt spreads, ESG flows, and sovereign risk on the line.
Markets
Ignoring Africa’s $40B annual productivity loss from untreated mental illness is no longer viable. Investors tracking NPN, SBK, EQTY, and GTCO may find the next growth edge is cognitive resilience, not commodities.
Policy & Economy
Sarkozy’s guilty verdict is historic, but OATs remain stable. France accounts for 15% of euro area GDP, with €2.9T public debt and euro reserves near 20% globally—proof markets care more about fundamentals than old scandals.
Markets
Ethiopia’s $1B Eurobond trades near 92c, but Ghana’s yields once hit 30%+ and Zambia bonds linger at 50–60c. With $33B debt unsustainable, Addis now stands as a bellwether for Africa’s sovereign risk and frontier market contagion.
Markets
Platinum’s 2025 surge is a repricing of scarcity: three straight deficits, cautious South African supply, and palladium-to-platinum substitution. The setup favors disciplined miners and metal ETFs as platinum narrows its historic discount to gold while early hydrogen demand gathers pace.
Markets
MNT-Halan’s GCC push shifts fintech from payments sizzle to asset-backed credit. With ~1.5m UAE payments users, 220k borrowers, open-finance via Lean, and KSA’s 79% e-payments penetration, the thesis is simple: data-rich payroll and dealer rails can price thin-file risk at scale.
Policy & Economy
Kenya unlocked KSh2.65bn for 600k–680k tea farmers by activating KDIC pass-through protection on trust accounts. The cash jolt lifts rural wallets and trims “resolution friction” in agri-finance—mildly bullish for payments and deposits while tightening risk pricing.
Policy & Economy
NEC’s website shutdown over unpaid fees exposes a procurement and continuity gap with real costs for transparency and stability. A fixable blueprint—SLA uptime, escrowed code, CDN mirror, SMS/radio syndication—can restore trust fast and keep USDLRD calm through election cycles. SLA dashboards track.
Markets
Mainland Group’s US$100m Liberia agri deal—announced Aug 13, 2025—targets a 1,000-ha rice site by Q3–Q4 ’25 and cocoa processing by Q1 ’26. Markets should care if offtakes, guarantees, and LCY/hedges land—turning PR into cash flows, tighter spreads, and semi-processed export FX.
Policy & Economy
By Jun 13, 2025, 56k cars via Khorgos (+21.6% y/y). Suez revenue $10.25bn→$4.0bn (2023→2024). EU EV duties 17–35% squeeze margins. Middle Corridor cargo +63% (2024). Africa’s pivot: ROO + local assembly or remain import-only.
Markets
Zimbabwe’s insurance fraud isn’t a headline—it’s a market risk. With ZWL 2.9trn GWP (~USD480m), IPEC pegs losses near 3% (~USD15m) yearly, pressuring premiums and a 1.5% penetration rate. Listed insurers—OMU, ZBFH, ZIM—lose investable cash; AI, shared fraud bureaus are urgent.