Markets & policy across African economies: debt, FX, inflation & capital flows.
Markets
CNMC’s US$85.8m expansion of DRC’s Kambove mine deepens China’s grip on copper and cobalt. By upgrading shafts, plants, and ESG systems, CNMC signals that mid-tier projects matter in the race to control minerals driving the energy transition.
Markets
DTB Kenya’s sale of its 83% Burundi stake signals a shift in African banking: capital is being pulled from small, high-risk markets toward stronger hubs. For investors, it mirrors global retrenchment trends and highlights frontier fragility.
Markets
Alios Finance’s CFA 9 bn raise signals nonbank finance’s growing role in Cameroon. As sovereign yields top 10% and credit access lags at 19%, the firm’s bet on leasing and SME lending could redefine CEMAC’s financial future—or expose systemic fragility.
Africa
EXIM’s $100M guarantee for Côte d’Ivoire’s digital sector via Citi (NYSE: C) and Cybastion signals U.S. intent to de-risk African tech. Yet against a $100B need, its scale raises doubts—catalyst for capital or just geopolitical posturing?
Policy & Economy
Nelson Mandela Bay’s R1.58bn deficit signals more than local mismanagement: soaring water and power losses, unpaid bills, and weak collections highlight systemic municipal fragility that could spill into South Africa’s sovereign risk profile.
Policy & Economy
EXIM’s $100M guarantee for Côte d’Ivoire’s digital sector, executed via Cybastion, signals U.S. intent to de-risk African tech finance. Yet its modest scale versus $100B needs raises doubts over whether it’s a catalyst for scale or just geopolitical signaling.
Policy & Economy
Nigeria’s CBN cuts rates 50bps to 27%, its first since 2020. With inflation at 28% and Eurobond yields near 9%, the move signals a cautious pivot to growth. Will banks like ZENITHBANK, GTCO, and ACCESSCORP pass it on—or will FX fragility erase the gains?
Markets
TotalEnergies (TTE) exits OML 118 in a $510m deal, handing Shell (SHEL) & Eni (ENI) more oil and up to $1–2bn in future liabilities. Nigeria pumps 1.45mbpd vs 1.8mbpd OPEC quota; any 40–50kbpd uplift could add $1.2–1.5bn yearly at Brent $84/bbl.
Markets
Angola eyes 17.5m carats by 2027, a $600m-carat Luele mine, and Pensana’s (LSE: PRE) 20–40ktpa rare earths (~5% global share). With Lobito Corridor aiming 1.5mtpa copper flows, sovereign Eurobonds (8.25% 2029, ~12% yield) could tighten if execution delivers.
Markets
Standard Chartered (LSE: STAN; LUSE: SCBL) has shortlisted bidders for its Zambia retail arm, a move that could reshape Lusaka’s banking scene. With Zanaco, Absa (JSE: ABG), and Access (NGX: ACCESSCORP) circling, investors await the price tag.
Policy & Economy
Ethiopia’s $10B airport, $2.5B fertilizer venture, nuclear plans, and 1.5M housing units dwarf its fiscal space. With debt at 39% of GDP, reserves covering just 2.5 months of imports, and a euro-bond default unresolved, investors question if Addis’s mega-project pipeline is fiscal overreach.
Policy & Economy
Madagascar’s violent protests over power and water exposes fragile fundamentals. With GDP growth slowing to 3.2%, inflation at 8.6%, debt at 45% of GDP, and FX reserves covering just 3.6 months, unrest may widen spreads across frontier debt ETFs (EMB, FRNT) and hit mining giants RIO and S.TO.