Africa Financial Intelligence

Togo

Togo Recalibrates AfCFTA Strategy to Turn Policy into Trade Competitiveness

Togo is reviewing its AfCFTA strategy to shift from treaty compliance to competitiveness. With GDP growth near 5%, debt at 55% of GDP, and TG2031 Eurobond yields at 8.6%, Lomé aims to turn its port and industrial base into a real regional trade engine.

Congo (Republic of)

DRC Risks Market Confidence in Bid to Enforce Cobalt Control

Congo’s new cobalt export quotas threaten exclusion for violators as the government asserts control over 70% of global supply. Prices (LME: COB ≈ USD 33,500) rose 3.4% as traders weigh state capacity against market credibility.

Egypt

Qatar-Energy Expands in Egypt Signaling Renewed Gulf Confidence

Qatar-Energy’s 27 % stake in Egypt’s offshore Block 3 marks a strategic Gulf return to North Africa’s energy scene. With Egypt’s FX reserves near USD 36 bn and inflation ≈ 33 %, the deal brings capital, credibility, and stability to Cairo’s upstream revival.

Markets

M-KOPA Turns Profit as Africa’s Fintech Model Evolves Toward Assets

M-KOPA posts USD 9.2M profit as Kenya’s fintech shifts to asset-backed finance. Revenue surges 66% to USD 253.5M. With USD/KES ≈ 129.4 and frontier yields above 10%, M-KOPA’s e-mobility pivot shows African credit can turn ESG capital into sustainable profit.

Uganda

World Bank Flags Uganda’s Revenue Leak as Frontier Yields Climb

Uganda’s UGX 3.6 trillion in annual tax exemptions—equal to 3 percent of GDP—has turned from an investment lure into a fiscal risk. As yields (UG10Y ≈ 14.5%) and borrowing costs rise, investors now price Uganda’s credibility, not its growth.

Uganda

Uganda’s 13.5% Pension Yield Still Outperforms as Global Rates Ease

Uganda’s NSSF 13.5% payout remains a standout as global rates ease. With inflation at 3.3%, 10-year bonds near 16.9%, and a stable shilling, Uganda locked in one of the world’s best real returns—proof that frontier discipline still pays.

Togo

Togo’s Aid Boom Tests the Price of Sovereignty

Togo’s 51% surge in development aid to USD 745 million signals renewed donor confidence but deepens concessional dependence. With debt near 58% of GDP and low tax revenue, Lomé’s stability rests more on grants than markets—buying time, not autonomy.

Oil & Gas

OPEC’s Modest Move That Exposes Global Market Fatigue

Oil’s rebound to USD 85 (LCOc1) after OPEC+’s modest hike hides fragility. Demand from China softens, US10Y (^TNX) ≈ 4.35% tightens credit, and Africa faces inflation strain as USD/KES and USD/TZS weaken. Relief rally or last gasp of petro-policy credibility?

Togo

How Togo Turned Borrowing into Fiscal Strategy

Togo’s debt mix is shifting fast — external debt now 41.1% of total, up from 28.3% in 2019, with 60% of new loans from IMF, World Bank, and AfDB. WAEMU bonds trade near 7.9%, while EMB ETF (NYSEARCA: EMB) spreads narrowed 70bps, signaling rising confidence in Lomé’s fiscal model.

Kenya

Kenya Buys Back Debt and Buys Time on Credibility

Kenya’s US$1 billion Eurobond buyback of its 2028 notes marks a bold test of frontier-market discipline. Swapping short-term pressure for higher long-term yields, Nairobi signals credibility—but at a rising cost in global capital markets.

Nigeria

Nigeria’s Tax Gamble That Could Cost More Than It Earns

Nigeria plans to triple capital gains tax on foreign investors from 10 % to 30 %, risking capital flight as equities on the NGXGROUP face repricing. With USD/NGN ≈ 1 600, inflation at 33 %, and Eurobond yields near 12 %, policy credibility is again on the line.

Gold & Precious Metals

Gold’s $4,000 Surge Turns into a Warning for Frontier Currencies

Gold nears $4,000/oz (XAU/USD) as Washington’s gridlock fuels global risk aversion. The USD/ZAR (ZAR=) slides to 18.9, while US10Y (^TNX ≈ 4.35%) and DXY (≈ 105.8) tighten liquidity, exposing how Africa’s frontier currencies weaken when safe-haven demand surges.