Markets & policy across African economies: debt, FX, inflation & capital flows.
Algeria
Algeria’s 2028 cashless plan formalizes liquidity flows, strengthens policy transmission, and narrows sovereign spreads; DZD=X reflects currency discipline while BZ=F links fiscal stability to commodity exposure in a USD 288 billion economy.
Tunisia
Tunisia’s 2026 budget tightens the deficit near 3% of GDP and conditions SOE support on governance milestones; TND=X steadies as CL=F-linked liabilities shrink, with spreads seen narrowing 150–200 bps if reforms sustain into 2026.
Senegal
Senegal raises CFAF 450 billion under a new financing doctrine, shifting debt toward local markets and tighter audit rules. Watch BZ=F near USD 80 and EMB +15 bps YTD as WAEMU yields 6.3–6.5% test compression through mid-2026.
Cabo Verde
Cabo Verde’s Rabidantes reforms could lift taxable GDP and expand deposits as EURUSD=X stability and CL=F trends support inclusion, narrowing the 9% GDP current-account gap and improving FM frontier risk metrics within two years.
Kenya
Kenya’s event week doubles Nairobi–Kisumu fares to KSh 23k amid capacity strain and fuel costs above USD 86. Watch USDKES=X for FX tightening and BZ=F for fuel trends as inflation dynamics shape rate-cut timing through Q4 2025–Q1 2026.
Uganda
URSB targets 235,000 registrations as BoU holds 9.75%; inflation at 4.0% and growth near 6% set the backdrop. SBU and DFCU on USE, plus EMB and AFK, track whether formalization converts into credit expansion and durable fiscal gains.
Zambia
Zambia’s pharma push targets import substitution as Brent (BZ=F) holds near USD 85 and EMB tightens; USD 80m annual FX savings, 7.5% inflation, and non-copper exports up 0.5–1.0% of GDP would confirm execution through 2026.
South Africa
South Africa tightens contract oversight as ZAR=X holds near 17.4 and 10-year yields stay around 9.0%; CPI 3.3%, repo 7.0%, and debt 77% of GDP show governance now steering fiscal credibility and JALSH performance.
Cabo Verde
Cabo Verde pivots toward regulated, skills-based tourism to deepen value retention and sustain the euro peg; EURCVE=X and eurobond XS2108083806 track investor confidence and policy execution over the next 12–24 months.
Mozambique
Mozambique’s confidence index drops to 89.8 as MZN=X steadies near 63.5 and CL=F holds low-80s; the 2031 eurobond near 11.1% signals stabilization, but high lending spreads and micro-frictions still suppress capex and credit formation.
Kenya
KPLC.NR shares fell 20% after FY2025 results showed revenue down 5.1% and profit down 18.7%. Markets eye KES=X stability, tariff resets, and rate moderation as key to restoring margins and narrowing the utility’s risk premium within two quarters.
Algeria
Algeria’s 2026 Bill tilts to base-broadening over rate hikes; CL=F steady near low-80s while DZD=X around 130 supports disinflation. Credible enforcement could lift non-oil revenue >10% y/y and narrow the 2024 deficit by 3 ppt through 2026.