Libreville Shuns Restructuring Amid Fiscal Tightrope

Libreville has formally ruled out any debt restructuring, opting instead to stabilise its fiscal outlook through growth-led adjustment and a forthcoming GDP-rebasing exercise. Vice-President Moussa Adamo confirmed that Gabon will not pursue an IMF programme or debt reprofiling, insisting the focus remains on auditing domestic arrears and completing a national accounts rebasing before year-end — a move expected to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio mechanically.

Officials argue that rebasing will better reflect recent structural changes, including expansions in energy, construction, and telecommunications. Yet markets see the strategy as a time-buying measure that raises the execution burden. Investors will seek tangible evidence that arrears clearance is credible, that budget discipline is maintained under volatile oil revenues, and that the domestic bond market can absorb new issuance without crowding out private-sector credit.

Current debt-service ratios remain elevated, with spreads reflecting both political uncertainty and regional liquidity conditions. If rebasing proceeds smoothly and expenditure restraint holds, moderate spread compression is plausible; failure or delay could keep financing costs above 10 percent for longer. Fiscal transparency and timely publication of audit results will be key indicators of policy credibility.

In the short term, analysts are watching three variables: the outcome of the arrears audit, the Q4 issuance calendar, and any guidance from the statistics office on the revised GDP base. The absence of restructuring rhetoric has calmed investors and reduced tail risks, but sentiment hinges on delivery rather than declarations. In a market still pricing regional and commodity volatility, Gabon’s credibility — not relief — will determine whether yields ease or remain punitive.