Grain Trade Resumes As Drought Cuts Zim Output

South Africa has welcomed Zimbabwe’s decision to lift its long-standing maize import ban, opening the door for renewed cross-border grain trade and regional food-security coordination ahead of the 2025–26 planting season. The policy reversal follows two years of poor rainfall that cut Zimbabwe’s maize output by nearly 40%, leaving an estimated 2.7 million people food-insecure, according to the country’s agriculture ministry.

The move restores market access for South African grain traders who had faced restrictions since 2016, when Zimbabwe imposed protectionist measures to shield domestic farmers. Early trade projections suggest that up to 450,000 tonnes of South African maize could be exported northward by mid-2026, primarily via the Beitbridge corridor. Spot export offers are quoted around US$280 per tonne, reflecting elevated logistics and insurance costs.

South Africa’s Agricultural Business Chamber said the reopening could support both countries’ supply stability, especially as the Southern African region contends with El Niño-linked weather volatility. The maize futures contract (ZACMaize) on the Johannesburg exchange gained 1.2% on Monday, while the rand (USDZAR=X) remained firm near R17.86 per dollar. Analysts note that increased regional demand could firm producer prices in the short term but will also boost throughput for logistics operators and silo owners.

For Zimbabwe, the import liberalization comes as part of a broader economic recalibration aimed at attracting private-sector participation in agriculture. Authorities are finalizing agreements with South African and Zambian millers to ensure steady grain supply while stabilizing retail flour prices, which have surged by more than 30% in the past year. The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has pledged to prioritize forex allocation for essential food imports to curb speculative pressure on the local currency.

Regional observers view the policy shift as a pragmatic concession to climate realities rather than ideological change. With Malawi and Zambia also experiencing production shortfalls, coordinated sourcing across SADC markets could mitigate shortages and stabilize food-price inflation currently averaging 8.4% across the bloc.

If implemented smoothly, the resumed trade could narrow Zimbabwe’s cereal deficit by mid-2026 and modestly lift South Africa’s agricultural exports by about 0.6% of GDP, reinforcing its position as the region’s key grain supplier.