Dutch Housing Market Defies Supply Push
Dutch housing prices stay elevated despite rising construction; ABN Amro sees no relief before 2026 as supply lags demand and permits slow. (^AEX, DE10Y)
The Netherlands’ housing market continues to defy gravity despite record construction and zoning reform efforts. ABN Amro expects no broad price correction before mid-2026, noting that higher output has not matched population-driven demand. Residential completions rose 7 percent y/y, yet total listings remain about 20 percent below pre-pandemic averages. Developers face surging labour and materials costs, while municipalities struggle to release buildable land at scale.
Average transaction prices climbed 6 percent y/y in Q3 2025, supported by a 3 percent q/q rise in mortgage demand as fixed-rate offers stabilised near 3.8 percent. Household incomes grew 4.3 percent y/y, but affordability continues to erode with the price-to-income ratio close to a record 9.5. Inflation eased to 2.8 percent and GDP growth slowed to 1.2 percent, yet urban housing appetite stays firm—driven by net migration, student inflows, and tight rental supply.
Institutional investors have become more selective as yields compress to 3.5 percent, reducing appetite for buy-to-let exposure. The forthcoming 2026 Spatial Act aims to simplify permitting and expand suburban capacity, though ABN Amro warns that bureaucratic lag and labour shortages could mute the impact. Financial indicators show limited systemic stress: the AEX Index (^AEX) remains steady and the 10-year Dutch bond (DE10Y ≈ 2.37 %) trades comfortably within Eurozone averages.
Analysts argue that sustained balance between fiscal incentives, planning efficiency, and industrial capacity will determine whether price stabilisation emerges late 2026 or extends further. Without productivity gains in construction and faster land release, the market’s chronic imbalance could persist, underscoring how cyclical supply pushes fail to overcome structural scarcity.
