Côte d’Ivoire Markets Weigh Election Continuity
Côte d’Ivoire’s elections signal policy stability as T-bond yields hold near 6.4% and BRVM rises 5% YTD. Cocoa near $4,000/t supports growth but fuels 8.2% inflation. Investors expect continuity and 6% GDP through 2026.
Early election results in Côte d’Ivoire point to broad continuity, with the ruling coalition maintaining control and reinforcing expectations of stable policymaking through 2026. Provisional counts indicate a smooth process, reducing political risk premia in local markets. Yields on 2028 T-bonds remain steady at 6.4%, and the BRVM Composite Index has gained 5% year-to-date, reflecting investor confidence in sustained fiscal and economic stability.
Macroeconomic fundamentals remain favourable. Cocoa prices are holding near US $4,000 per tonne, supporting export revenues and trade surpluses. However, the same strength in cocoa is pushing inflation higher—currently around 8.2%. The BCEAO’s policy rate stands at 5.25%, keeping real rates negative and prompting discussions of measured tightening to anchor expectations. Fiscal policy continues to prioritise infrastructure and social investment while adhering to WAEMU’s deficit ceiling of 3% of GDP.
Foreign investors still regard Côte d’Ivoire as WAEMU’s benchmark issuer. Its Eurobond profile remains balanced, with an average coupon near 6.3% and maturities well-distributed through the decade. Brent crude (≈US $85) and a stable dollar (DXY) are helping maintain manageable external costs, underpinning growth projected at roughly 6% through 2026.
The key risks lie in fiscal slippage or unexpected political turbulence, which could unsettle yields and rating stability. For now, the market narrative favours continuity: strong commodity receipts, disciplined debt management, and steady governance are likely to keep Côte d’Ivoire positioned as the subregion’s anchor economy.
