Portugal
Portugal warns export targets may fall short in 2026 as global uncertainty shrinks order visibility and logistical costs rise. Lower operating leverage pressures margins for exporters and SMEs as demand softens across Europe’s industrial supply chain.
Europe
EU states seek a one-year delay to the anti-deforestation law as traceability requirements strain supply chains. Compliance costs risk excluding small producers and shifting sourcing to large players, while European staples and logistics firms reassess procurement.
France
France sees slight Q4 growth as firms delay investment amid political uncertainty. Consumption holds, but business spending stalls, keeping equities cautious and sovereign spreads wider as the recovery relies on restoring policy clarity and confidence.
Indonesia
Bank Indonesia targets 2026 GDP of 5.33% with upside to 5.4% if fiscal disbursement accelerates. Credit growth raised to 8–12% and inflation seen at 2.62%, creating a stable backdrop for lending and domestic investment as IDR holds near 16,430/USD.
Europe
EU considers partnering with platforms and influencers to counter hybrid threats, treating information integrity as financial stability. Disinformation now affects sovereign spreads and investment decisions, pushing Big Tech into Europe’s security perimeter.
Germany
Germany’s exporters are shifting toward Eastern Europe as near-shoring cuts logistics costs and stabilizes orders. Regional supply chains improve cash flow and earnings visibility for EU industrials such as DAI.DE and BAS.DE despite weak China demand.
Europe
ECB warns inflation risks remain tilted upward as wage growth stays elevated. Markets scale back expectations of early rate cuts, supporting bank margins but pressuring rate-sensitive sectors as restrictive policy persists longer than investors assumed.
Europe
European equities hit record highs as falling risk premia lift banks and insurers. Improving rate visibility boosts valuations, with ^STOXX50E gaining and financials like SAN.MC and CS.PA benefiting from stable spreads and stronger capital returns.
China
China’s pledge to increase Spanish imports boosts bilateral flows and counters EU surplus pressure; watch COSCO SHIPPING (1919.HK) and Spanish exporters like DIA.MC as logistics investment and volume commitments materialize.
Singapore
Three-quarters of Singapore’s SMEs are unprepared for mandatory sustainability rules. Tight margins, rising carbon taxes and ESG-linked lending costs are squeezing profitability, creating a risk of a two-speed economy where only large corporates can afford to go green.
China
Chinese firms with EU footprints sustain margins while tensions rise. Localization shields pricing power for EV and renewables; watch EV makers and solar suppliers such as tickers 688772.SS and 1211.HK as order backlogs guide earnings visibility.
Asia
Foreign investors pulled over USD 10B from Asian equities as rising real yields hit AI-related valuations. Outflows centered on Korea and Taiwan’s chip supply chain, but rotation into India and ASEAN signals profit-taking, not panic, as markets await earnings clarity.