New Zealand
New Zealand jobless climbs to 5.3% (Q3 2025) as employment growth stagnates at 0.0% quarterly. The RBNZ's 5.25% OCR has constrained growth (GDP $0.3\%$) but achieved some disinflation (3.1%). Markets price 50-75 bps cuts by mid-2026 to stabilize employment.
Australia
Core CPI (3.6%) and fiscal outlays (26.7% GDP) fuel the "Jimflation" debate. The RBA's 3.60% rate implicitly accommodates a mildly expansionary fiscal stance. Nuanced analysis shows service wage rigidity and housing supply, not just government spending, drive persistent inflation.
Australia
Australia macro: GDP 1.6% (2025), inflation 3.6%, and cash rate 3.60% signal a fragile equilibrium. High household debt (186% of income) restrains consumption (0.8% YoY), forcing the RBA to weigh easing amid soft growth vs. sticky service inflation (4.2%).
Australia
ASX 200 (AXJO) slides 0.7% as Macquarie leads losses. Weak GDP (1.4% YoY) and sticky inflation (3.6%) reinforce a mid-cycle slowdown, fueling investor rotation into defensives. Equity risk premiums have widened to 5.2% amid RBA's policy ambiguity at 3.60%.
Australia
Macquarie (MQG.AX) forecasts profit down 21% to AUD 1.7 billion as RBA tightening flattens spreads. Lower trading income and weak property lending point to a recalibration of Australia’s financial intermediation model and structurally slower ROE expansion across the sector.
Japan
Japanese utilities JERA and Tohoku Electric say they can replace Sakhalin-2 LNG if disrupted, balancing U.S. pressure to cut Russian imports with energy-security demands. Tokyo warns a halt could raise electricity prices and strain Takaichi’s cost agenda.
Global Markets
Dow (NYSE: DOW) and BASF (ETR: BAS) warn of deepening chemical oversupply as China’s capacity rises 8 % vs global demand growth of 2 %; European output down 4 %, energy costs still +30 %, and sector margins unlikely to recover before 2027.
Germany
Rheinmetall (Xetra: RHM) and Bulgaria’s VMZ launch a €1 billion NATO-grade ammunition hub, shifting Europe’s defence base eastward as regional budgets exceed €280 billion. The project embeds Bulgaria in EU supply chains and boosts Rheinmetall’s industrial reach.
Spain
Telefónica (BME: TEF) trims dividend yield to 4.8% to conserve €1.3 billion for 5G and fibre expansion as €25 billion debt and rising interest costs pressure cash flow; a sector-wide pivot to sustainability redefines European telecom valuation.
Nigeria
CBN’s failed ₦1.1 bn OMO sale shows weak demand as NGN/USD 1,495 erodes real yield and MPR 24.75% struggles to anchor inflation; T-bill spreads and NSE: ZENITHBANK liquidity data guide Q2 2026 outlook.
South Sudan
South Sudan’s FATF status lifts trade-finance costs and lengthens settlement as Brent (LCOc1) stays range-bound and frontier risk gauges like MSCIFM reprice governance; watch LC coverage, inflation, reserves for 2026 recalibration.
Rwanda
Rwanda GDP 6.3% and debt 54% contrast with Kenya’s FATF review; Absa index 2025 ranks Rwanda 73 as KIFC inflows hit $2.6b, bond yields (RSE: RWGB) at 10.4% stay stable amid regional spread divergence.