Kelvin Peter Msangi is a Tanzanian finance and economics researcher known for data-driven analysis on fiscal policy, markets, and economic reform. His work has been featured in leading publications across East Africa and other regions.
Policy & Economy
South Africa’s CPI slowed to 3.3% y/y vs 3.6% forecast, core near 3.1% and headline −0.1% m/m. USDZAR firmed to 17.6, R2035 yields dipped to 9.1%, banks rallied—yet SARB faces a Thursday dilemma: hold credibility at 7.00% or cut 25bp to aid growth.
South Africa’s new agri pacts with Brazil and Japan hint at export windfalls—if intent hardens into access. Could citrus, poultry, and wine soon ride a direct pipeline to Tokyo and São Paulo?
Eswatini pledges USD 5m to ASIA, but with debt at 43% of GDP, deficits near 5%, and reserves covering just 2.4 months of imports, global markets won’t budge—USD/ZAR (17.32) and SAGB yields (9.07%) remain the real tickers to watch.
Hybrid imports in Rwanda rose from 28 units in 2021 to 6,660 in 2024, while EVs grew from 19 to 512. Toyota (TM), Hyundai (005380.KQ), and BYD (1211.HK) stand to benefit, as oil majors ExxonMobil (XOM) and TotalEnergies (TTE) face long-run demand headwinds.
Sempra’s $10B stake sale offers Africa a blueprint: monetize minority stakes in pipelines, LNG, and grids to unlock capital, recycle equity, and close the continent’s infrastructure financing gap,
Indian auto stocks surged as tax reforms lifted the Nifty Auto (CNXAUTO), with MARUTI.NS, TATAMOTORS.NS, and M&M.NS rallying. Africa’s USD 21.5bn market, led by JSE: MTA and JSE: MTH, shows the gap in scale and policy-driven momentum.
Europe’s giants ($1T+ AUM Amundi, BLK) reshape flows, leaving JSE:JSER.JO, NSE:NMSE.NR, BRVM:BRVM.CI exposed; MTN.JO, DANGCEM.LG risk marginalization as passive ETFs redirect capital.
Policy & Economy
Sahel’s ICC exit deepens investor fears: rising spreads, fragile bonds, and opaque resource-backed deals push Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso further from global capital markets’ confidence.
Coalition rhetoric now prices into South Africa’s markets—moving the rand, widening spreads, and raising debt costs as much as fiscal policy itself.
Markets
Kuwait’s KD250m five-year floater at base+62.5 bps signals a rebuilt domestic curve and clean carry for banks (KFH.KW, NBK.KW, BOUBYAN.KW, GBK.KW, ABK.KW). With debt ultra-low and policy easing, steady issuance should compress term premia ahead of likely external prints into 2026.
Markets
Platinum’s 2025 surge is a repricing of scarcity: three straight deficits, cautious South African supply, and palladium-to-platinum substitution. The setup favors disciplined miners and metal ETFs as platinum narrows its historic discount to gold while early hydrogen demand gathers pace.
Markets
MNT-Halan’s GCC push shifts fintech from payments sizzle to asset-backed credit. With ~1.5m UAE payments users, 220k borrowers, open-finance via Lean, and KSA’s 79% e-payments penetration, the thesis is simple: data-rich payroll and dealer rails can price thin-file risk at scale.