Kelvin Peter Msangi is a Tanzanian finance and economics researcher known for data-driven analysis on fiscal policy, markets, and economic reform. His work has been featured in leading publications across East Africa and other regions.
Policy & Economy
Douala Port’s 150th anniversary ambition—an extra $2B in CEMAC trade by 2030—signals Cameroon’s bid to become a regional logistics hub. Yet high sovereign yields, corridor bottlenecks, and rising competition cast doubt on execution and investor appetite.
Africa
EXIM’s $100M guarantee for Côte d’Ivoire’s digital sector via Citi (NYSE: C) and Cybastion signals U.S. intent to de-risk African tech. Yet against a $100B need, its scale raises doubts—catalyst for capital or just geopolitical posturing?
Policy & Economy
Nelson Mandela Bay’s R1.58bn deficit signals more than local mismanagement: soaring water and power losses, unpaid bills, and weak collections highlight systemic municipal fragility that could spill into South Africa’s sovereign risk profile.
Policy & Economy
EXIM’s $100M guarantee for Côte d’Ivoire’s digital sector, executed via Cybastion, signals U.S. intent to de-risk African tech finance. Yet its modest scale versus $100B needs raises doubts over whether it’s a catalyst for scale or just geopolitical signaling.
Policy & Economy
Nigeria’s CBN cuts rates 50bps to 27%, its first since 2020. With inflation at 28% and Eurobond yields near 9%, the move signals a cautious pivot to growth. Will banks like ZENITHBANK, GTCO, and ACCESSCORP pass it on—or will FX fragility erase the gains?
Markets
First Quantum (TSX: FM) is betting $1.25B on Kansanshi’s S3 to replace lost Panama output and anchor Zambia’s 3 Mt copper goal. Success could reprice Zambia’s Eurobonds and shift global supply chains, but execution and policy risks loom.
Markets
TotalEnergies (TTE) exits OML 118 in a $510m deal, handing Shell (SHEL) & Eni (ENI) more oil and up to $1–2bn in future liabilities. Nigeria pumps 1.45mbpd vs 1.8mbpd OPEC quota; any 40–50kbpd uplift could add $1.2–1.5bn yearly at Brent $84/bbl.
Markets
Angola eyes 17.5m carats by 2027, a $600m-carat Luele mine, and Pensana’s (LSE: PRE) 20–40ktpa rare earths (~5% global share). With Lobito Corridor aiming 1.5mtpa copper flows, sovereign Eurobonds (8.25% 2029, ~12% yield) could tighten if execution delivers.
Markets
Standard Chartered (LSE: STAN; LUSE: SCBL) has shortlisted bidders for its Zambia retail arm, a move that could reshape Lusaka’s banking scene. With Zanaco, Absa (JSE: ABG), and Access (NGX: ACCESSCORP) circling, investors await the price tag.
Policy & Economy
Ethiopia’s $10B airport, $2.5B fertilizer venture, nuclear plans, and 1.5M housing units dwarf its fiscal space. With debt at 39% of GDP, reserves covering just 2.5 months of imports, and a euro-bond default unresolved, investors question if Addis’s mega-project pipeline is fiscal overreach.
Policy & Economy
Madagascar’s violent protests over power and water exposes fragile fundamentals. With GDP growth slowing to 3.2%, inflation at 8.6%, debt at 45% of GDP, and FX reserves covering just 3.6 months, unrest may widen spreads across frontier debt ETFs (EMB, FRNT) and hit mining giants RIO and S.TO.
Policy & Economy
Ørsted (ORSTED.CO) shares jumped after a U.S. court revived its $5B Revolution Wind project, averting $1B+ in losses. The ruling eases near-term risk but political uncertainty, cost inflation, and sector-wide PPA strains mean the stock’s bounce looks more like relief than re-rating.