Kelvin Peter Msangi is a Tanzanian finance and economics researcher known for data-driven analysis on fiscal policy, markets, and economic reform. His work has been featured in leading publications across East Africa and other regions.
Cabo Verde
Cabo Verde’s 2.1% CPI and euro peg discipline keep EURUSD=X-implied FX risk low while benign oil dynamics via BZ=F support the external balance; debt trends toward ~105% of GDP as consolidation and standards-led exports compress risk premia.
Zambia
Zambia leans on China-backed water capex as USDZMW=X steadies near 23 while HG=F tracks copper-driven buffers; local 10Y near 19–20% underscores execution risk even as inflation eases and reserves hold near four months.
Cameroon
Cameroon’s EUDR pivot ties cocoa and credit: with (CC=F) elevated and (NIB) trending higher, audited traceability can compress yields on XS1313779081 and XS2360598630, while HSY and NSRGY absorb margin pressure as supply tightens.
Libya
Libya’s LBC–IsDB workshop targets SME export formalisation as BZ=F holds near $85 and XAUUSD stays elevated. With GDP 3.0–3.5% and USD/LYD broadly stable, a 20–30% rise in registered SME exports could cut FX settlement to under 30 days.
Tanzania
Dar Port throughput up over 15% YoY as automation halves dwell time and lifts revenue; stable TZS=X near 2,600 per USD and oil prices (CL=F) near $80 sustain logistics margins while FDI above USD 1.6 bn signals durable trade-led growth momentum.
Togo
Togo embeds private insurers in UHC governance, shifting CFAF 25 bn arrears risk to markets. Regional 10-year yields (~7.4%) and frontier debt (EMB) could tighten as insurers like AXA (AXA.PA) and NSIA (BRVMCI) gain from rising health premiums.
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe targets a 1.8% FY26 deficit to anchor IMF reengagement; risk premia track EMB while gold prices (XAUUSD) support FX inflows. Zero net central-bank financing and ≥95% revenue outturns by mid-2026 would validate disinflation and currency stability.
Tunisia
Tunisia manages a narrow stability path as USD/TND (TND=X) volatility stays muted and oil (CL=F) risk caps disinflation; IMF projects 2.5% growth in 2025 and a ~3% deficit, keeping spreads elevated while duration premia anchor the local curve amid high global rates.
Nigeria
OMO and NTB yields converge as policy eases to 27%; insurers NGX:REGALINS and NGX:PRESTIGE gain while NGX breadth stays thin, signaling investors await sustained disinflation and stable FX before re-risking across banks and industrials.
Kenya
Kenya links with Indonesia ahead of IndoNEX 2025; USDKES=X volatility could compress as flows diversify while Indonesian risk appetite tracks ^JKSE and EIDO, signaling potential FDI into Kenya’s manufacturing and renewable energy chains.
Egypt
IMF’s warning meets markets where ^TNX resets the discount rate and EGX30:IND rallies on liquidity over earnings; Egypt’s record reserves collide with 20% local yields as policy credibility decides whether spreads compress or widen.
South Africa
Business confidence at 121.1 lifts sentiment, but output hinges on power and rail capacity; JSE:AGL and JSE:SHP gain on cyclical tailwinds while local yields near 11% signal unresolved Eskom and Transnet risk.