Kelvin Peter Msangi is a Tanzanian finance and economics researcher known for data-driven analysis on fiscal policy, markets, and economic reform. His work has been featured in leading publications across East Africa and other regions.
Nigeria
Nigeria’s revenue-recovery plan aims to lift non-oil receipts and cut the deficit; if arrears exceed ₦1 trillion and NGN=X stays near ₦1,600, spreads on Eurobonds and CL=F-linked fiscal flows could tighten by mid-2026.
Algeria
AIIB partnership signals structural financing shift as CL=F steadies and DZD=X stabilizes; Algeria targets lower spreads, higher execution ratios, and 15% non-hydrocarbon exports by 2028 through disciplined multilateral investment.
Libya
Libya’s export drive rests on $98.8bn reserves, 1.8% inflation, and stable 1.38m b/d oil output. The policy aims to narrow the LYD/USD gap and speed customs cycles as BZ=F and FM mirror macro traction and diversification risk into 2026.
Tunisia
Tunisia’s EUTIC 2025 tests if ICT exports can top a USD0.70bn run-rate and FDI averages USD100m/quarter as policy holds 7.50%, the dinar steadies near 2.93 per USD (TND=X), and global conditions stay benign with oil range-bound (CL=F).
Morocco
Morocco’s green-packaging agenda targets import substitution and manufacturing uplift as plastics imports hit US$2.99 bn in 2023 and manufacturing GDP share slips to 14.29 %. Watch MASI, ATW, BCP for execution milestones.
Egypt
EGP=X steadies as Egypt secures €7.4 billion EU support through 2027; CDS near 350 bps and NG=F exports strengthen FX inflows, signalling tighter spreads and improving debt sustainability under EU-IMF reform benchmarks.
Uganda
Uganda’s Shs1.7 trillion Anti Money Laundering leakage equals about 0.75% of GDP and keeps long yields near 16.9% as USDUGX=X stability faces pressure while stronger enforcement could narrow spreads and attract frontier inflows supported by steady BZ=F prices.
Rwanda
Rwanda–Tunisia forum tightens North–East Africa value chains as input costs track BZ=F and frontier risk appetite runs through EMB and FM; watch RWF=X to gauge whether non-debt FDI offsets capital-goods imports amid a narrowing external gap.
Kenya
BZ=F steady near USD 75 as KES=X trades around 129 and ^TNX holds near 4.0%; Kenya’s record USD 12 bn reserves ease FX risk, but Eurobond spreads above 600 bps show liquidity gains without structural external repair.
Cabo Verde
Cabo Verde’s INE reform links transparency to tighter spreads; as EMB and EEM track EM sentiment, a 50-bp compression in the 2030 bond yield would validate data credibility as a fiscal-market stabiliser.
Mozambique
Metical steady around 63 per USD (MZN=X) as inflation holds near 4.9%; gold (XAUUSD) and cocoa (CC=F) prices strengthen Mozambique’s external position while Treasury yields hover near 13% amid TSU-linked fiscal standardisation through 2026.
South Africa
South Africa’s wage-heavy provinces constrain growth as ZAR10Y yields 10.5% and USDZAR=X trades near 18.7; elevated real rates and rigid spending ratios sustain risk premia despite CPI at 4.6% y/y and GDP growth of 1.2% in 2025.