Afrobarometer flags labour distress in kingdom

A new Afrobarometer survey has revealed that persistently high youth unemployment in Eswatini is intensifying outward migration intentions, with nearly two-thirds of respondents aged 18–35 indicating plans to seek work abroad within the next three years. The findings, released by the Times of Eswatini, underscore growing labour-market distress despite gradual macroeconomic recovery.

The survey places Eswatini’s national unemployment rate at roughly 33 %, with youth joblessness near 48 %, making it among the highest in the Southern African region. Respondents cited limited private-sector expansion, slow industrial diversification, and public-sector hiring freezes as primary factors. This comes against a backdrop of subdued GDP growth of 2.7 % in 2024 and modest recovery projected at 3.3 % for 2025, supported mainly by agriculture and services.

Government officials acknowledged the challenge but highlighted ongoing programs such as the Youth Enterprise Revolving Fund, which has disbursed E280 million to micro-entrepreneurs since 2021. Analysts, however, note that limited scale and weak linkages to formal financial institutions have constrained impact. Only 19 % of the population report access to formal credit, while informal borrowing networks continue to dominate.

The report’s release coincides with the Ministry of Labour’s consultation on a National Employment Policy, which seeks to realign training with market demand and expand apprenticeships through public–private partnerships. Economists stress that job creation requires improved domestic investment climate and faster industrial-park development to absorb new graduates.

The social dimension is equally stark. Remittances from Swazis abroad currently account for about 4.5 % of GDP, softening household consumption gaps but reflecting the depth of local labour shortages. A net emigration of 10 000–12 000 citizens annually is already affecting rural productivity, with the construction and tourism sectors facing labour deficits.

Regionally, Eswatini’s trajectory mirrors pressures seen across smaller SADC economies where unemployment among youth remains structurally high. The MSCI Frontier Africa index’s muted performance and stable commodity prices (CL=F) illustrate limited regional spillovers, but domestic productivity bottlenecks persist.

The Afrobarometer team noted that unless job-creation reforms yield visible progress by 2027, migration could accelerate, eroding the demographic dividend that Eswatini’s development plan seeks to harness. For policymakers, the report serves as a clear signal that youth-focused employment strategies are not just social imperatives but macroeconomic necessities.