AfCFTA Awareness Low Despite Strong Support for Trade

A recent Afrobarometer survey, released on 7 November 2025, highlights evolving South African public sentiment toward trade policy and international representation, revealing a complex mix of enthusiasm and unawareness. The survey indicates that approximately 72 percent of South Africans support open trade policies, while 68 percent favor a stronger African voice in global forums such as the G20 and the UN General Assembly.

However, awareness of the critical African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) remains strikingly low, with only 34 percent of respondents reporting familiarity with its provisions. This dichotomy underscores the inherent tension between broad public enthusiasm for economic integration and the significant challenges of translating that widespread sentiment into effective policy execution and essential trade infrastructure development.

The significance of these findings becomes clearer when contextualized within South Africa’s demanding macroeconomic framework. The country’s GDP stood at roughly US $350 billion in 2024, but structural growth has remained sluggish at 1.5 percent annually over the past five years, while unemployment continues to exceed 32 percent. South Africa’s trade exposure is substantial: merchandise exports were valued at US $128 billion, with imports at US $115 billion, generating a modest surplus but leaving the economy vulnerable to external shocks.

Broad public support for open trade could significantly bolster government legitimacy in negotiating new trade agreements, facilitating tariff reductions, and encouraging necessary participation in regional supply chains. Similarly, public endorsement of stronger African representation may align strategically with Pretoria’s leadership ambitions as host of the G20 Johannesburg Summit later in November 2025, thereby enhancing its influence in shaping multilateral economic policies.

Mechanistically, the successful translation of positive public sentiment into effective policy involves three core components: infrastructure investment, institutional coordination, and awareness-building. Low AfCFTA awareness indicates a significant gap in communication and education: for trade liberalization to yield its projected gains of US $50 billion to US $70 billion annually for participating economies, South African businesses must fundamentally understand tariff schedules, customs procedures, and emerging market opportunities.

Capacity-building in both the private and public sectors will be essential to unlock the full cross-border trade potential, as will targeted investments in logistics, port efficiency, and regulatory harmonization. The public’s favorable stance toward open trade may also provide crucial political cover for deeper economic reforms that traditionally encounter fierce resistance, such as liberalizing agricultural or manufacturing exports, aligning domestic regulation with continental standards, and fostering renewed investor confidence.

At the macroeconomic and sectoral level, strong public support for open trade can powerfully amplify the impact of policy reforms. Increased and proactive participation in regional and global markets could stimulate export-led growth, providing critical support to sectors like mining, agro-processing, and manufacturing. Enhanced African representation may further attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into these sectors, as investors perceive both political stability and a proactive multilateral posture.

Market signals are already evident: the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (ZA:JSE) has experienced modest inflows into industrial and export-oriented equities, while South African sovereign bonds, trading at approximately 8.5 percent for 10-year maturities, may see gradual stabilization if investors interpret the policy direction as genuinely conducive to growth and macro stability.

Forward risks remain material, primarily centered around implementation and inclusivity. Policy enthusiasm must be unequivocally matched by concrete trade facilitation measures; otherwise, public support may fail to convert into tangible economic gains, leading to disappointment. Structural bottlenecks—including chronic energy supply instability, persistent labor disputes, and port inefficiencies—pose formidable and persistent obstacles to trade execution.

Moreover, the low AfCFTA awareness signals that small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are crucial for job creation and inclusive growth, may not fully participate in regional markets, significantly limiting the inclusive benefits of trade liberalization. Ultimately, political volatility or policy reversals could further undermine fragile investor confidence and slow the critical process of continental integration.

Looking ahead, key measurable indicators over the next 12–24 months include the percentage increase in intra-African trade originating from South Africa (target: +15 percent by end-2026), FDI inflows into export-oriented sectors (target: +US $3 billion by mid-2026), and business awareness of AfCFTA provisions (target: 60 percent of SMEs engaged). If these metrics demonstrably improve in tandem with public sentiment, South Africa could successfully leverage its domestic political support to strengthen continental integration, drive export-led growth, and consolidate its role as a credible and influential African voice in global economic governance.