$1 Billion Surge Flags Financing Accountability Gap

Senegal’s Finance Ministry faces scrutiny after audit findings revealed undisclosed sovereign borrowing that will raise 2026 debt service by about $1 billion. The exposures stem from state-guaranteed loans to infrastructure and energy projects during 2021–23, some off-balance-sheet under SOEs. Reclassification now adds nearly 2 points to the debt-to-GDP ratio, pushing it toward 69%.

Markets reacted mildly as investors still view Senegal a regional benchmark issuer. Yields on 2029 Eurobonds widened 20 bps to 8.7%, while the CFA remained steady at ≈ 604/USD under WAEMU peg stability. Analysts note that the country’s primary deficit should stay near 2.8% of GDP if oil-gas revenues arrive on schedule from the Sangomar field in 2025.

The incident revives regional debate on fiscal disclosure and IMF conditionality. Senegal’s programme targets a debt anchor below 70% of GDP by 2027, which remains feasible if no further hidden liabilities emerge. Government plans to publish a comprehensive SOE debt report by March 2026.

For markets, the lesson is that WAEMU’s credibility rests on transparency. As DXY eases and Brent fluctuates around $85, external liquidity remains manageable, but communication discipline is vital to avoid risk premium creep across the union.